As China Starts Commercial Shipping Service to the Arctic, Does India Need to Move Faster?

By Nirmala Ganapathy

As China's ambition to create a "Polar Silk Route" gains momentum with the launch of a weekly Arctic container service to Europe across the icy Northern Sea Route, does India need to speed up its own plans to tap into this challenging trade route?

The Dubai Tower, a ship operated by Sea Legend, carrying solar and other equipment, set sail from China's Ningbo-Zhoushan Port on Sunday and is expected to reach Felixstowe in the United Kingdom, apart from Rotterdam in the Netherlands, Hamburg in Germany and Gdynia in Poland, in around 21 days, half the time as compared to the Suez Canal route.

The ship, a part of a weekly Arctic container service from China to Europe, will sail along Russia's Northern Sea Route, with Global Times, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, reporting that at least eight such voyages will take place this year on seven to eight ice-strengthened vessels.

For India, this raises the question of how it should boost capabilities to navigate the Arctic, as China gets a head start in commercialising the route.

India's plan remains in the planning stage, with a pilot run of a container ship planned for some time in 2027.

Experts noted that though India can't compete commercially, given the route is shorter for China, it needs to move from planning to execution sooner as the route becomes more accessible, strategically important and provides an alternate route to Europe.

Why is the Northern Sea Route becoming more sought after?

The Northern Sea Route, which runs along Russia's Arctic coast, provides a shorter route between Asia and Europe, compared to the Suez Canal route for China and other eastern Asian countries.

The importance of having a presence across different trade routes has been reinforced by maritime disruptions caused by the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine.

For China, the Arctic route is an extension of its Belt and Road Initiative to build trading corridors backed by strong infrastructure for seamless movement of goods and strategic influence.

China is mapping out Arctic routes, dubbed the "Polar Silk Road", to build shipping lanes to connect its ports like Ningbo to European ports.

The Arctic route, dominated by Russia, has limited Western presence, providing China with an alternate route to transport oil and other energy. And Beijing started early.

The state-owned COSCO Shipping vessel Yongsheng undertook the first voyage from China to the Netherlands via the Northern Sea Route in 2013.

It has been investing in icebreaker ships and increasing its stake in Russia's energy infrastructure, including oil fields.

The Global Times reported that China-Russia cooperation in "route management, icebreaking services, and port connectivity" has improved, aiding China's use of the Arctic route.

The Northern Sea Route has challenges

As China gets an early start, for India, it's not a question of a shorter route.

The distance from Mumbai to Rotterdam in the Netherlands through the Suez Canal is 11,500 km, while the distance from Chennai to Rotterdam through the Northern Sea Route is around 18,900 to 19,400 kilometres.

Cargo ships on the Northern Sea Route are smaller, meaning they carry less cargo than those travelling through the Suez Canal due to the challenging ice and weather conditions.

Operational costs include the need for icebreaker ships amid uncertain weather and floating ice.

Still, the Northern Sea Route has acquired strategic and economic importance for India, which needs to boost its presence on additional maritime trade routes, especially to transport energy supplies.

"It's a big connectivity game which is on in the world. The reason why it is more important is because its an alternative route. Why does the US want control over the Strait of Hormuz? It's the kind of competition that is breaking out over sea lanes, and India cannot be left behind," said Meena Singh Roy, a Eurasia and West Asia expert who is Chairperson of the Greater West Asia Forum India

"When we talk about the Arctic, China is definitely in a better position."

Indian interest grows

For India, this could be another route to boost exports to Europe, having concluded a Free Trade Agreement early this year.

Similarly, it provides a shorter route to sourcing energy from Russia, which is looking at further developing energy and critical minerals in the Far East and the Arctic offshore shelves.

"We could source hydrocarbons from Russia. Right now we could get it from our eastern side. Russia is also big for rare earth minerals. As the Northern Sea Route opens up, we could train seafarers to man the route. We could supply manpower. The Far East is sparsely populated," said Captain (retired) Anurag Bisen, a senior fellow at the think tank Vivekananda International Foundation and a veteran Indian Navy submariner.

There is also growing global strategic interest in the Arctic amid serious environmental concerns over global interest in mining critical minerals and natural resources.

"It is about resources which are there in the Arctic, and it is about strategic space in the Arctic. If you think long term at the moment, Russian and Nordic states have control over it," said Roy.

India has an early advantage

It's not that India hasn't recognised the strategic and economic importance of a presence in the Arctic.

India's official Arctic Policy, released in 2022, recognised the opening of the Northern Sea Route and noted it could be a trade route between Asia and Europe.

Moscow and New Delhi have been discussing training Indian sailors to navigate the Arctic waters apart from developing joint projects in Arctic shipbuilding, including ice-breaking ships.

India already has a maritime link to Russia's Far East through Chennai and Vladivostok, which serves as a southeastern endpoint for ships using the Northern Sea Route.

The route, which supports India's Northern Sea Route ambition, is being used to transport goods such as coking coal and fertilisers.

A ports ministry official recently noted that the volume of traffic on this route is up 70 per cent over the last year even as Russia has become India's second-largest supplier of oil.

Experts believe India needs to do much more in implementing its Arctic policy, which is fragmented, divided among multiple desks in the Ministry of External Affairs alone, noted Bisen.

The Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs has recommended the government consider appointing a Polar Ambassador to consolidate India's diplomatic, strategic and scientific approach to the Arctic.

Still, an advantage for India is that it has good ties with Russia, which has found itself isolated from the West over the war in Ukraine, and has been keen to court friendly nations.

India, which is among the world's fastest-growing economies, has been of particular interest to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has often described India as a "very reliable partner" and recently publicly noted the increased interest from both China and India in the Northern Sea Route.

"The most productive dialogue is taking shape with China and India, which not only demonstrate interest in the Arctic agenda but also possess extensive resources for implementing joint projects and initiatives in this area,” Russian Ministry official Vladislav Maslennikov was quoted as saying by state-run TASS news agency,

India needs to move from planning to execution

Experts said that India does not need to replicate China and rush to commercialise the route. But they noted that Chinese influence is growing.

"The Chinese having more leverage is not in our interest," said Bisen.

"We are (already) ceding ground to China. China has been filling space as Western oil majors have moved out (due to the war in Ukraine)."

This means training sailors, further fortifying maritime links with Russia and acquiring Arctic-enabled ships.

So far, Bisen noted, "We are short on execution. We need to move quickly".

ETV Bharat