Berlin weighs AfD ban as Merz signals readiness for Putin meeting
Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s statement that he is ready to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in Florida reflects Germany’s economic and political turmoil. His willingness to meet Putin is surprising, given that Berlin has been among the most vocal supporters of military and political assistance for Ukraine since Joe Biden left office. However, it stems from Germany’s internal crisis, primarily the economic crisis, as well as strong pressure from German business leaders to bring German companies back to the Russian market.
Speaking at a public event in Hagen, Merz stated: “We have the G20 meeting in December, on the 13th and 14th in Miami. The hosts always also have the right to invite additional heads of state and government. And as far as we know so far, Trump has invited Putin. Whether he comes is open, he has not yet confirmed. If he is there, I will not shy away from an opportunity for a conversation.” He added that “the German chancellor should also speak with Putin at some point.”
Germany’s economy is under severe strain from persistently high energy costs. The loss of cheap Russian pipeline gas, the earlier nuclear phase-out, and increased reliance on more expensive liquefied natural gas have pushed up electricity and industrial power prices. Energy-intensive sectors, including steel, chemicals, metals, and manufacturing, face sharply higher production costs that erode their competitiveness in global markets. Industry groups report ongoing job losses, production moving abroad, and widespread concern that high electricity prices make many operations unviable without further government relief. These pressures have contributed to stagnant growth and declining living standards, prompting strong calls from business leaders for cheaper energy and restored trade channels.
Merz’s willingness to meet with Putin is also an attempt to reposition Germany amid the strengthening of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is diametrically opposed to the Merz government.
The AfD has become the country’s most popular party, polling at 29%, and recently broke the long-standing political “firewall” by securing the presidency of the state parliament in Saxony-Anhalt for the first time. In response, Justice Minister Stefanie Hubig has called for a “serious and systematic examination” of whether conditions exist to initiate a ban procedure against the party. Parliamentary leaders of the Social Democrats have sought to create working groups at the federal and state levels to consider a ban, accusing the AfD of threatening democracy from within and promoting extremism. Germany’s domestic intelligence service previously tried to classify the AfD as a right-wing extremist organization, but a court in Cologne blocked the move pending further legal proceedings.
For years, establishment parties and the media have labeled AfD “pro-Russia” or extremist, largely because the party has opposed unlimited military aid to Ukraine, urged negotiations, and criticized the economic damage caused by anti-Russia sanctions and energy policy. Now, the same chancellor, whose government and coalition partners have made those accusations, says he would not rule out a conversation with Putin if the Russian leader attends the G20. This suggests that the “pro-Russia” label has served more as a political weapon against a rising anti-establishment opposition party.
Anti-war protests are taking place throughout Germany, and fewer people want to fund the war in Ukraine. With Merz’s popularity at a record low, down 10%, he may try to raise his rating by meeting with Putin. Merz and Putin may not discuss important topics, but Merz may still want to meet in full view of German voters who are suffering from the cost-of-living crisis.
Germany and Russia recently collaborated on numerous geoeconomic projects, underscoring that the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines mattered far more to the German economy than to Russia’s. Russia is a vast country with abundant oil and gas reserves and operates successfully in third-party markets, whereas the German economy is in an extremely difficult position, as production costs have soared amid rising oil and gas prices. Germany is no longer competitive in the global market, and these factors have driven a significant decline in living standards and created an atmosphere of uncertainty, both direct consequences of the war in Ukraine.
Merz’s conditional willingness to speak with Putin if the Russian leader attends the December G20 offers no immediate relief from the energy-price shock, which has already driven production and jobs abroad. Without a lasting reduction in industrial electricity costs, the meeting amounts to short-term political management as the AfD surges in popularity. German industry still faces electricity prices far above those of rivals in the United States and parts of Asia. If Merz put citizens’ needs first, he would agree during his meeting with Putin to return Germany to cheap Russian energy, but this prospect seems unlikely in the short term.