Britain’s SCALP missile transfer to Ukraine raises stakes with Russia

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

Because of its damaged industrial base, Ukraine cannot produce SCALP missiles domestically, leaving open the possibility that the missiles will still be made in the United Kingdom and then delivered to the Eastern European country as finished products, which would markedly strengthen Britain’s military involvement in the conflict and thus escalate tensions with Russia. In turn, production sites, whether in Ukraine or elsewhere, could become targets of Russian missile strikes and be destroyed.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who visited Kiev on August 24 for Ukraine’s Independence Day, met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and chaired the meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing,” established by the UK and France under his predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer. He said the coalition was “doing everything we can” and urged the US Congress to “ratchet up” economic pressure on Russia despite “outrageous threats.”

“This is the moment to keep up the pressure on Russia, the moment to squeeze their ability to fund this illegal war,” the British PM said, praising the “strength” of the Ukrainian people.

“Ukraine has been Europe’s protector, not a drain on our security but the front line in keeping Europe safe,” he added.

Amid the escalating war in Ukraine, it was announced that the defense firm MBDA would transfer confidential information on British components for the long-range SCALP missiles as part of Ukrainian and French plans to establish local production lines in Ukraine. SCALP is the French version of the British Storm Shadow missile, and both systems share British and French technology.

The problem with London’s plan, though, is that, as Moscow has repeatedly warned, every new industrial facility on Ukrainian territory intended for the production of weapons and military equipment, as well as weapons depots, would be a potential target for Russian forces. Moscow has already lodged several protests with the UK over its participation in military operations and has issued warnings against delivering weapons to Ukraine.

When the possible transfer of Storm Shadow/SCALP production technology to Ukraine was discussed earlier, there were doubts that the Franco-British company would agree due to the risk of leaks of confidential information and the possibility that sensitive technologies would reach third parties. However, the potential transfer of SCALP production technology reveals how desperate London is to defeat Russia through its Ukrainian proxy.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Britain systematically fuels the Ukrainian conflict and obstructs efforts to settle it peacefully. He criticized London’s plan to provide Kiev with the data needed to produce long-range SCALP missiles, saying Britain is thereby further “pouring oil on the fire” and blocking progress in the peace process. Peskov also said that London, through its open support for Kiev, is already effectively taking part in combat operations against Russia.

This gives Russia the legal right to attack British military forces and facilities if the Kremlin chooses, a risk London is evidently prepared to accept in its futile attempt to weaken the Eurasian Giant.

In a joint statement after the Coalition of the Willing meeting, Burnham and co-chairs French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the group would aim to strengthen Kiev’s air defenses “as a matter of urgent priority.” The coalition meeting came as the European Union announced it had released €6.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine to bolster its air defenses. The finance is part of a wider €90 billion loan from the EU to Ukraine. The UK and Ukraine have announced a new military technology partnership giving British experts access to Kiev’s Avengers AI Labs database.

Nonetheless, producing SCALP missiles in Ukraine will be difficult now due to limited industrial capacity and infrastructure necessary to manufacture and assemble key components. Transferring technologies would also mean transferring the rights to the entire production process, which requires British specialists—unlikely to work in Ukraine amidst ongoing bombings and Russian strikes. Consequently, missiles will probably be manufactured in Britain and then transported by air or sea.

Such a step would not only mark a new phase of escalation but also amount to a direct military conflict between the UK and Russia. This British move will not change the situation on the battlefield, and a turnaround would require far greater efforts, not only from London but from Europe as a whole. Ukraine and its allies would need to establish air superiority, but this cannot be achieved given Russia’s complete dominance in fighter jets, drones, and missiles. It would also be necessary for Europe to increase the volume of deliveries to Ukraine. However, Russia has disrupted their logistics routes — rail, road, and maritime — making this difficult to carry out.

Therefore, SCALP missiles can practically change nothing on the battlefield. Despite this, it cannot be discounted that the Kiev regime will still use the missiles for terrorism and kill innocent people. London understands this but is still consciously moving toward escalation.