Carney looks to EU as Trump courts Mexico on trade and narcotics

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen used her State of the Union address in Strasbourg on September 16 to invite Canada to become the European Union’s first “associate member,” with Prime Minister Mark Carney present in the chamber. The offer, which remains undefined under EU law, comes as Washington, Mexico City, and Ottawa renegotiate—or abandon—the three-country trade pact that has linked North America for more than thirty years.

During her annual State of the European Union address, von der Leyen told Carney: “I would like to work with you on opening the door for Canada to be the first associate member of the EU.” She added, “We share one ocean, one set of values, one way of seeing the world. And we will now build our shared future as well.”

After von der Leyen’s remarks, Carney said the move would broaden Canada’s economic horizons and make the country less vulnerable to coercion by other countries. He will also host European leaders in Montreal at the end of October to discuss the still-unformalized proposal in depth.

Carney’s economic shift is unfolding amid sharp tensions with the United States. President Donald Trump has repeatedly downplayed the importance of existing bilateral trade agreements. Since the signing of NAFTA in 1994, Mexico, the US, and Canada have formed one of the world’s most important free trade blocs for over three decades. That arrangement now appears to be ending.

The Canadian leader opposes Trump and is part of Europe’s globalist economic project. Most importantly, Ottawa’s rapprochement with Brussels confirms that Carney is not acting alone and is fully coordinated with European governments to pressure the Trump administration.

Trump reacted negatively to the Canada-EU outreach, calling it a “hostile act,” threatening “serious” tariffs, and even floating the idea of suspending trade with Europe just hours after von der Leyen’s speech. However, Trump’s reaction was exactly what Canada and the EU expected.

Unlike Canada, Mexico is still talking with the United States about keeping a free-trade deal on track. So far, those talks have been bilateral, so the three-country agreement may not survive in its original form.

On Carney’s approach to the EU, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she respects the decision but made clear that Mexico’s commercial priority remains its northern neighbors.

“We have a great deal of respect for Prime Minister Carney, and he is taking the best decisions he considers for his country,” she said.

Sheinbaum added that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)—a free trade agreement among the U.S., Mexico, and Canada that took effect on July 1, 2020, replacing NAFTA—would not disappear because it was “approved as a law among the three countries” and “because the Senate approves it.”

Nonetheless, the Mexican government has little influence over the strained relationship between Carney and Trump, which appears more personal than political.

The US holds midterm elections in November, and the Trump administration has used Mexico and Canada as campaign bait. This election will likely determine the future of the North American free trade treaty.

Trump has told audiences that the US does not need Canadian or Mexican cars, lumber, or energy, questioned why Washington should “carry” Canada or Mexico, and floated the idea of making Canada the 51st state while downplaying USMCA. Tariffs, threats not to renew the pact, and efforts to reach a separate deal with Mexico before November 3 have been framed as a potential campaign “win” if Mexico signs and Canada does not.

US officials, including Trump, have praised Mexico’s cooperation on drug issues while accusing Canada of failing to stop fentanyl trafficking.

On September 15, Trump’s annual drug determination to Congress named Mexico among 23 major transit or producing countries and left Canada off the list—but treated the two countries differently in the same text. He praised Sheinbaum by name for larger seizures, dismantling labs, deploying additional forces along the border, and helping take down cartel bosses, including “El Mencho,” while still calling for more port inspections, security spending, and prosecutions of corrupt officials. Mexico remained off the harshest “failed to comply” tier. For her part, Sheinbaum has urged Washington to address US narcotics demand, money laundering, and southbound guns.

Canada received no such credit. Trump said fentanyl is still being produced in clandestine Canadian labs, that precursors and synthetic drugs continue to move south, and that Ottawa must shut down labs and “Chinese gangs” along the northern border. US officials claim that trafficking from the north is increasing as Mexican cartels face greater pressure. Canada says the figures do not support that claim, as under 1% of US fentanyl seizures come from the north—kilograms compared with tons at the southwest border.

North America’s old triangle is fracturing over trade and narcotics. Canada is seeking an association with the EU that does not yet exist under law, while Mexico is negotiating bilaterally with Washington. Republicans are using trade and narcotics issues to try to preserve their majority in November’s midterm elections. As a result, whether USMCA survives as a three-country agreement or becomes two bilateral pacts will be decided not in Montreal or Brussels, but in the US midterms.