COP31: Energy transition takes centre stage as countries map path beyond fossil fuels

Energy and Transport Day at COP31 got off to a somewhat ironic start on Tuesday. With world leaders descending on Antalya and security tightened, roads were clogged, buses packed and journeys to the venue stretched for hours. 

The chaos outside, however, did little to overshadow the bigger challenge being tackled inside: transforming how the world produces and uses energy, and ending its dependence on fossil fuels. 

Three years after countries agreed in Dubai (COP28) to transition away from coal, oil and gas, Brazil, COP30 lead, presented a roadmap aimed at turning that promise into reality.

“It’s long past time to stop treating the transition away from fossil fuels as taboo or intractable,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said at the launch of Brazil’s COP30 initiative setting out how countries can transition away from fossil fuels.

But he also had a warning: fossil fuel dependence is not just bad for the climate. It is becoming an increasingly expensive liability.

Since the current escalation in the Middle East began, the European Union alone has paid more than €100 billion in additional fossil fuel import costs, he said, while petrol and diesel prices have surged across 130 countries.

“Changing suppliers will not eliminate this exposure. Disruption anywhere drives up prices everywhere.”

First released on 3 November and formally presented today at COP31, Brazil's roadmap seeks to turn the global commitment to move away from fossil fuels into national plans.

The challenge looks different from one country to another. Oil and gas producers must prepare for declining revenues and changes to jobs and industries, while countries dependent on imported fuels need to develop alternatives that can reduce their exposure to volatile energy markets.

Both face the difficult task of securing the investment, infrastructure and international support needed to make the transition possible.

Ana Toni, CEO of Brazil’s COP30 Presidency, said the roadmap examines three interconnected challenges: fossil fuel demand, production and supply, and the economic consequences of moving away from them.

It also offers countries indicators to assess their readiness, identify obstacles and plan next steps, alongside proposals for greater international cooperation.

“Start now from wherever you are. Start now. Don’t wait,” she urged.

The roadmap is voluntary and not new binding climate agreement. 

Secretary-General Guterres nevertheless called on countries to produce national plans with clear timelines and financing needs, and to demonstrate measurable progress by 2028.

The roadmap was one of several energy initiatives showcased during the day.

COP31 host Türkiye has its own ambition: to increase electricity’s share of global energy consumption from just over 20 per cent today to 35 per cent by 2035.

The 35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge sounds technical, but the idea is familiar: more electric buses instead of diesel, more homes heated without gas and more factories running on electricity.

To deliver its full climate benefits, the power must increasingly come from clean sources.

Another major topic at COP31 is the electricity grid, the vast network of power lines, cables and substations that carry electricity from where it is produced to homes, businesses and industries.

For example, imagine building a solar farm capable of powering thousands of homes, only to discover there is no way to deliver the electricity.

That is already happening, according to Dario Liguti, from the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UN-ECE).

Mr. Liguti explained to UN News that around 2,500 gigawatts of power generation and other energy projects are awaiting grid connections worldwide.

Some facilities cannot connect at all. Others must cut production because electricity networks cannot accommodate the power.

“Two things: increase the quantity of the grid and increase its quality,” he explained, calling for millions of kilometres of new transmission lines and upgrades to existing infrastructure.

And while the global energy crisis has exposed the risks of fossil fuel dependence, as the UN chief warned, Mr. Liguti sees an upside.

“What is driving this crisis [is] driving a larger penetration of a huge investment in renewable energy…Why? Because renewable energy helps energy security because it's domestic. You don't need to import oil; you don't need to import gas.”

Solar and wind projects can also be built relatively quickly, he added. But their success ultimately depends on whether the electricity can reach the people who need it.

Solar and wind power have become dramatically cheaper over the past decade, but for many developing countries, the upfront investment remains a major obstacle.

Olli-Pekka Kuusela, a researcher at the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), told UN News that poorer countries often face much higher borrowing costs, making clean energy projects difficult to finance even when the technology is competitive.

“With the cleaner technologies, like solar and wind, the upfront investment costs can be a bit significant,” he told UN News. “That’s why having access to capital and having the cost of capital being reasonable is very important.”

Development banks could help by offering lower-interest loans. But for Mr. Kuusela, the opportunity goes beyond replacing fossil fuels.

In sub-Saharan Africa, more than half a billion people still lack electricity. Bringing reliable power to communities could support new industries, manufacturing, better services and electric public transport.

And there is another challenge: making electricity systems resilient to climate change itself.

In Zambia, where Mr. Kuusela has conducted research, severe drought reduced hydropower production, leading to blackouts and electricity rationing. Expanding solar power and strengthening connections with neighbouring countries could help avoid similar disruptions in the future.

The issue is also on the UN’s radar, with its Global Grids Accelerator seeking to unlock investment in electricity networks and speed up their expansion and modernization.

Follow the latest developments from COP31 through our new podcast, Talk & Action, and our special daily coverage of the conference.