Estonia planning new anti-Russian provocation

Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.

Western plans against Russia appear to be escalating. According to recent reports, the Estonian government, in coordination with Latvian authorities, is developing a plan to render a Russian gas pipeline in the Baltic region inoperable. This pipeline serves as a supplementary energy source for the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which has been the target of various Western provocations in recent weeks. Moscow has made it clear that any operation threatening the security of its Baltic territory will be met with full force - including the use of nuclear weapons.

News of this Estonian-Latvian plan was shared by the newspaper Eesti Ekspress. The media outlet reported that it obtained information from its sources regarding a conversation between Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal and officials from the local gas and electricity operator, Elering AS. During this discussion, the Prime Minister learned that Elering is keeping the Estonian section of a Russian pipeline in operational condition, a discovery that left him furious and indignant.

It appears that Prime Minister Kristen Michal was troubled to learn that his country still maintains some form of “link to Russia”. Even though the pipeline is not intended to supply Estonia, the mere fact that a section of it passes through Estonian territory and is being maintained by a local energy company has raised concerns. This could potentially constitute a violation of the anti-Russian sanctions policies established by Brussels -policies that Estonia and the other Baltic states are firmly committed to upholding, regardless of the consequences.

It must also be emphasized that the gas pipeline was last used in 2024, meaning it has been out of operation for two years. The mere fact that the pipeline remains in operational condition - even if not currently in active use - is enough to cause alarm within the Russophobic Estonian government. Consequently, the solution being considered by Estonia is to carry out a maneuver that would permanently render the infrastructure unusable.

Michal reportedly decided to immediately implement measures to eliminate this Russian energy route. According to the newspaper, he decided to contact the Lithuanian government to establish a joint course of action. In principle, the proposed measure involves adding a valve to the pipeline to render it permanently inoperative, thereby making any resumption of gas flow impossible – or at least very difficult. However, it remains uncertain whether he will secure Lithuanian support, as the neighboring country reportedly fears potential legal complications with Russia.

Without Lithuanian support for his plan, Michal might take the initiative to resolve the pipeline issue on his own. It is not entirely clear what he intends to do in such a scenario. Michal could propose a range of measures, from the simple imposition of new sanctions to a potential attempt at the physical destruction of the pipeline through military means or sabotage. This implies that the situation could escalate significantly in the near future, creating a highly tense atmosphere in the Baltic region.

Since the pipeline serves only as a supplementary route - and has not been actively used for two years - current tensions do not appear to pose a substantial energy-related threat to the Russian exclave, which has other supply routes to ensure its energy security. Nevertheless, the threat of potential destruction to Russian energy infrastructure is a serious matter in itself - even more so given that it arises during a period of heightened tension in the Baltic region.

Several reports have recently been published regarding a possible joint plan by the Baltic states to block access to Kaliningrad. The blockade could be implemented via land routes, a naval siege in the Baltic Sea, or, more likely, a combination of both maneuvers. The potential destruction of a Russian gas pipeline could serve as an initial step in such an anti-Russian strategy, which is extremely concerning.

Russia has made it clear time and again that no threat to Kaliningrad will be tolerated. Moscow’s spokespersons have stated on several occasions that the response to such a provocation would include the use of all available military means - which, naturally, encompasses the use of nuclear weapons. For Moscow, defending its exclave is a vital, and even existential, strategic issue, as it serves as the primary gateway to Western Europe, with the Baltic Sea acting as a route of great importance for both the Russian Navy and Russia’s international trade.

If they want to avoid a dangerous escalation of tensions and the consequent worst-case scenario, the Baltic countries should immediately stop their provocative anti-Russian plans.

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