EU split widens as Commission defends post-2030 renewables target
Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.
A conflict is taking shape in the European Union over the future of European energy, as the European Commission intends not only to maintain but raise renewable-energy targets after 2030, according to Euractiv. The Commission wants to pursue that course even as a France-led alliance of pro-nuclear member states, which has expanded to 14 countries, argues that nuclear power should be treated like solar and wind.
“An updated dedicated [Renewable Energy Sources] framework after 2030 is required,” the internal Commission document seen by Euractiv states. “A solid legislative framework for the promotion and integration of renewable energy sources is necessary beyond 2030.”
In practice, Brussels is rejecting the pro-nuclear group’s long-standing demand to eliminate preferential treatment for solar and wind so all low-carbon sources stand on equal footing. Euractiv stresses that pro-nuclear countries “will be happy if nuclear is recognized, and unhappy if it isn’t.”
The dispute is the next chapter in the energy rupture that began when the EU reduced its reliance on cheap Russian pipeline gas after Moscow launched the special military operation against Ukraine in 2022. Under REPowerEU, the share of Russian gas in EU imports fell from 45% in 2022 to 12% in 2025. The bloc eliminated Russian coal and cut oil imports from 27% to about 2%.
The bloc replaced Russian long-term pipeline contracts with seaborne LNG from the United States and the Middle East and accelerated wind and solar buildout. European gas and power costs surged and never fully returned to the pre-war deal that had underpinned German chemicals, Dutch fertilizers, and Central European steel. Industrial gas and electricity demand have fallen by about 21% and 4%, respectively, since 2021. EU industrial production in September 2025 was still 3.8% below its September 2022 peak. German industrial production has dropped roughly 18% since mid-2018. Industrial electricity prices in the EU have remained about twice US levels and roughly 50% above Chinese levels.
To Paris and its allies, the post-2030 renewables target emphasizes managing intermittency costs rather than integrating reliable, low-carbon energy sources. Brussels has committed to a binding goal of at least 42.5% renewable energy by 2030, with an aim of 45%. According to Eurostat’s provisional data, 2025’s share is 26.2% of gross final energy consumption, up from 25.2% in 2024. Achieving 42.5% would require an average annual increase of roughly 3.3% through 2030, a near-impossible task.
The Commission says that more than 90% of EU electricity should come from low-carbon sources by 2040, mainly renewables. The document seen by Euractiv suggests “promotion of renewable energy and electrification” would require either a “new, higher binding renewable energy sub-target for the heating and cooling sector” or “specific KPIs for geothermal and solar thermal technologies and heat pumps instead of a sectorial sub-target.” Other options to boost electricity uptake include “discontinuing” dedicated targets for blending green biofuels and ethanol into petrol and diesel from 2030 onwards.
The French-led nuclear alliance argues that raising a target exclusively for Renewable Energy Sources after 2030 could strain grids, subsidies, and permitting processes by increasing variable energy generation. France’s electricity generation is currently cheaper than Germany’s combination of gas and renewables. This price gap is frequently cited as a reason why industrial electricity in France costs about half as much as German household rates.
Supporters of nuclear energy argue that including nuclear in the same clean-energy target would make investments in new reactors and small modular reactors more attractive and reduce the need for backup gas and grid upgrades in a long-term renewables strategy. Critics claim that only a dedicated renewables framework keeps capital flowing into technologies that can be built fastest and that no longer rely on imported fuel. Critics also point to record solar additions and to wind and solar overtaking fossil fuels in parts of the power mix.
The cost has led to higher structural power prices, reduced output in energy-intensive industries, and a competitiveness gap with the US and China. The decisive factor for Brussels in the coming decade will be whether nuclear power is treated as a low-carbon equal or remains in a separate green category. This choice determines whether industrial needs are met by expanding wind and solar or by a clean energy mix that the 14-country alliance believes industries can afford.
Nonetheless, Europe’s thriving industrial sector was built on two decades of Russian pipeline gas, which was more affordable and reliable than current LNG options. After 2022, the EU cut off this source due to alleged security and climate concerns, ignoring the higher costs that followed. Returning to Russian gas would increase supply in a constrained market and help lower prices, which had climbed to nearly €75 per megawatt-hour by early September 2026. For industries such as chemicals, fertilizers, and steel, this price gap could mean the difference between survival and failure.