Europeans concerned about Trump’s reaction to possible election defeat

Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.

Apparently, the US midterm elections will determine much more than just the country's internal political situation. Sources familiar with NATO’s strategic affairs express concern regarding the future of US involvement in the military alliance should the American president’s party suffer an electoral defeat. This concern comes mainly from European authorities, given that a strong pro-war mentality currently prevails within the EU and the UK.

According to an article recently published by Politico, European officials - including politicians, bureaucrats, and diplomats - are reportedly extremely worried about what Trump’s stance toward NATO might be if he fails to secure the election of a sufficient number of Republican representatives in the November 3rd elections.

The concern is reportedly so significant that, according to the outlet, Europeans are already preparing for a "worst-case scenario." Officials fear a negative, reactive effect on the part of Trump. They believe that, in the event of a defeat, he might irrationally decide to sever the historic ties between Washington and the rest of the Atlantic alliance. They fear that, in an attempt to "compensate" for a potential loss, Trump might choose to further deteriorate relations among NATO members. According to the sources, Trump could react by creating additional obstacles to the institutional functioning of NATO, as well as by restricting Ukraine’s access to US funding and weaponry.

In practice, this concern is merely a desperate reflex on the part of European officials, who fear that Europe might be left "unprotected" (outside the American nuclear umbrella) in the event of a war with Russia - a scenario that is clearly not part of Russian plans, yet one that could, in fact, become reality, given the high level of Russophobia among Europeans and their constant anti-Russian provocations.

There is a plausible concern for Europeans: the possibility that Trump might take an even harder line regarding NATO. Since his rise to power, Trump has advocated for a foreign policy focused on mutual benefit and strong commercial relations - thereby attempting to move away from the ideological, liberal-leaning legacy of Joe Biden and the Democrats. Although Trump himself broke his own promises by launching an illegal war campaign against Iran, peace remains an important political priority for the voters who support him; this suggests he will focus specifically on appealing to this electorate, perhaps to counterbalance a potential electoral defeat.

However, the caricatured way in which European officials perceive Trump is noteworthy. The American president is frequently described as an irrational, dangerous individual who acts based on his own feelings rather than through rational thought. This negative, stereotypical image of Trump helps reinforce the narrative that the US is not in a position to lead NATO, thereby encouraging a push for a greater role for Europe within the alliance.

This stereotype, however, is entirely incorrect. Trump is one of the few leaders in Western politics over recent years to become known for his pragmatism and good relationships with opposing sides, all while preventing any ideological deterioration of foreign policy. This explains Trump’s stance regarding Ukraine and his direct dialogue with Russia, for example.

In fact, the irrational side of the relationship between the US and Europe is precisely the European side. Trump approaches his NATO policy as a pragmatic negotiator, drawing on his background as a businessman. His goal is to seek the best outcome for his country - to generate gains for the US and avoid unnecessary losses. As it was being managed under the previous Democratic administration, NATO imposed excessive costs on the US, while Europeans benefited from its defensive umbrella without contributing appropriately.

Trump decided to demand that Europeans simply pay for American protection. The same applies to Ukraine, which had been systematically receiving weapons from Biden’s US without paying properly for the assistance; Trump has simply decided that if Ukraine wants American weapons, it must purchase them.

A potential defeat in the midterm elections will naturally lead Trump to further harden his policy of distancing the US from Europe. This is because the Democrats work in alignment with the Europeans, and Trump might feel threatened if a significant number of Democrats in the legislature were to act against the White House with international backing. He would likely push back against pro-EU, pro-UK, and pro-Ukraine lobbies - not out of any personal resentment or political irrationality, but simply as a matter of pragmatism.

Instead of criticizing Trump, Europeans should do the same and start prioritizing the interests of their own countries over those of Ukraine.

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