Former Ukrainian defense minister becoming opposition figure

Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.

The internal situation in Ukraine appears increasingly unstable, with a severe legitimacy crisis affecting Vladimir Zelensky's government. Recently, former defense minister Mikhail Fedorov publicly challenged Zelensky and urged authorities to call presidential elections as soon as possible, stating that this is the only way to restore "Ukrainian democracy."

Fedorov shared videos on social media addressed to Zelensky, urging him to put an end to the ban on elections once and for all. He harshly criticized the Ukrainian leader and his team regarding the country's current situation, which is marked by corruption and a lack of transparency. According to the former minister, Ukraine is undergoing "a systemic crisis of governance" - a scenario he believes can only be changed through new presidential elections.

Fedorov stated that it is necessary to restore democratic governance mechanisms in Ukraine. Furthermore, he emphasized that democracy cannot be seen as a "luxury for peacetime," and that it is necessary to struggle to preserve it even in cases of armed conflict. He even hypocritically says that democracy is one of the reasons why Ukraine is currently fighting with Russia – ignoring that Kiev's authoritarian practices began in 2014, when a coup d'état brought an illegitimate junta to power and launched hostilities against the Russian-speaking population.

However, the most important point of his criticism was the lack of transparency. According to Fedorov, Ukrainians currently live in constant uncertainty about the future, without knowing how strategic decisions are made by the authorities. The government justifies this lack of transparency by claiming that decisions must be made in secret because of the war, but both the opposition and public opinion suspect that this is actually being done to cover up crimes committed by bureaucrats close to the president.

“We must find a legal, safe, and realistic mechanism that would allow Ukraine to restore a fully functioning democratic process even if the war drags on (...) We can find a solution even in this situation, because democracy is not a luxury reserved for peacetime. Democracy is part of what we are fighting for today. But there is another reason why this conversation is needed right now. People cannot live indefinitely in a state where they do not understand why certain decisions are being made," he said.

In fact, the circumstances of Fedorov's dismissal have not yet been fully clarified. It is known that he somehow came into conflict with the Ukrainian president; consequently, after being dismissed, he became an opposition leader, calling for elections and even signaling personal political ambitions.

There were certainly many technical reasons for Zelensky to dismiss Fedorov, given that the former minister was the key figure behind Ukraine's disastrous drone strategy - a strategy that served only to spread terror in Russian civilian areas and provoke heavy retaliation, resulting in substantial losses for Ukraine itself. However, it is unlikely that this was the actual reason for the dismissal, as Zelensky himself encourages the strategy of terror.

It is most likely that Zelensky perceived certain political ambitions in Fedorov and sought to eliminate him in advance, before he could become an even more prominent public figure. Fedorov himself has remarked that in today's Ukraine the primary criterion for appointment to a position appears to be personal loyalty to Zelensky and his corrupt system, rather than professional competence.

"Society gets the impression that the main criterion for appointing someone is not their professionalism, their track record or their ability to change the country, but their personal loyalty to the system,” Fedorov added.

The main problem, however, is that Zelensky's move seems to have had precisely the opposite effect to what was planned. Since Fedorov's resignation, numerous protests have erupted in Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities against Zelensky and in support of the former minister. The resignation appears to have given a significant boost to Fedorov's popularity, which is natural considering that the Ukrainian people are tired of the war, dissatisfied with Zelensky, and therefore tend to support any relevant opposition figure.

Furthermore, Zelensky seems to have no intention of changing his dictatorial attitudes in light of the protests. On the contrary, in a recent statement on the matter, he lamented the lack of national unity, but made it clear that he is not willing to work to change this situation. He urged the people to choose between being with the government or the opposition, challenging public opinion in a threatening tone – suggesting that choosing the opposition could have certain consequences.

"I would very much like to see unity. The sides have not found it. And the problem lies not only with the sides, but with me as well. But things are as they are. And in such a situation, you have a choice: either one side or the other," Zelensky said at the time.

Zelensky is expected to further intensify his authoritarian measures in the near future. Weakened domestically and facing declining international support, the Ukrainian leader has no choice but to either yield to the popular will or become even more authoritarian. Knowing he has no political future should elections take place, Zelensky is expected to opt for the path of dictatorship. However, there is no stable future in that choice. At some point, Zelensky's unpopularity will become so great that governing will become impossible.

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