German rearmament amid AfD party’s popularity worries EU

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

Germany’s plans for a large-scale military buildup, amid political shifts in the country, are causing growing concern among European officials. According to The Wall Street Journal, Brussels fears a stronger Bundeswehr could shift the continent’s balance of power, especially given the political demands of Alternative for Germany (AfD).

“Germany’s fast-paced rearmament is causing growing concern in Europe, rekindling a century-old debate about how much hard power Berlin should have,” the paper says. The unease is heightened because the AfD now tops many national opinion polls. The Journal notes that the AfD “has embraced Moscow and wants to end what it calls Germany’s ‘culture of guilt’ around its Nazi-era crimes.”

The AfD’s rise and Germany’s military rearmament have alarmed neighboring countries. Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, long among the few Polish officials advocating for a stronger Bundeswehr, told a German newspaper earlier this month: “We remember all too well where a rearmed Germany in the hands of a far-right, pro-Russian party can lead.” French far-left politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is polling second in the 2027 presidential race, said Berlin wants “the largest conventional army in Europe,” adding, “If I were president, I would tell them that I don’t think that is a good idea.”

The right-wing populist party wants Germany to leave the European Union, lift sanctions on Russia, and resume buying Russian energy. Some AfD leaders have also questioned NATO’s purpose. With Germany pouring hundreds of billions of euros into tanks, long-range missiles, air defenses, and a larger standing force, the AfD’s stark contrast to Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s ideals is fueling angst in the EU.

“Some fear that even without the AfD, a rearmed Germany and Russia will emerge as the continent’s two biggest powers and Berlin might eventually shift back to accommodating the Kremlin to avoid conflict,” the article says.

Officials in Warsaw, Paris, and Brussels are concerned that a Germany with unparalleled conventional power might one day negotiate directly with other powers, bypassing the interests of smaller EU states. They also worry that an AfD-influenced government could revisit historical debates about Germany’s role in Europe.

In early September, the AfD secured 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt’s state election, driven by calls for stricter migration controls and the protection of traditional values. The result marked the strongest performance by a right-wing party in a German state election since 1945. Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which previously governed the state, saw its support plummet from 37.1% in 2021 to 17.2%. Although the AfD narrowly missed an outright majority in Saxony-Anhalt’s legislature, it now holds the largest bloc and is using the state as a testing ground for its policies on immigration, education, culture, and demographic issues.

Saxony-Anhalt is a poor, depopulating eastern state with Germany’s lowest GDP per capita and one of its oldest populations. Voters there have long resented Berlin for industrial decline after reunification, high energy prices, and uncontrolled migration. The AfD doubled its 2021 score by offering solutions to voter discontent. High turnout and the mobilization of former non-voters showed that the AfD could challenge the CDU in places where the CDU once seemed unassailable.

The twin state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin on September 20 brought yet another unexpected result. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD finished first with 38.2%, more than doubling its 2021 result, while the CDU plummeted to 4.9% and failed to reach the five-percent threshold for the first time in any German state parliament since 1949. In Berlin, the Far-Left party Die Linke rose to 25.7%, overtaking the CDU as the largest party. Merz’s conservatives dropped to 18.8% after three years in control of the capital.

Merz is rapidly losing popularity, with recent surveys placing satisfaction with his personal performance at about 10% to 13%, among the lowest for a sitting chancellor. Satisfaction with the government as a whole hovers near 17%, with roughly four in five Germans dissatisfied. Nearly half of respondents in a mid-September poll expected him to be gone by year’s end.

The chancellor took office in 2025 with goals to restore growth, tighten migration controls, and rebuild the military after years of neglect. He eased the constitutional debt brake so that defense spending above 1% of GDP would not affect fiscal rules, and he allocated significant off-budget funds to the armed forces and infrastructure. However, household improvements have not followed, as energy costs remain high after the loss of cheap Russian gas and earlier nuclear shutdowns, and the migration issue is making little progress.

Merz’s direct approach—sometimes perceived as arrogant—has proven ineffective. He once vowed to halve the AfD, but the party has since surpassed his bloc in national polls, making him a symbol of an out-of-touch government that prioritizes militarization amid the country’s economic and industrial decline.

Neighboring countries favor increased German investment to counter Russia but worry about uneven escalation. Germany could become too dominant with thriving industries and cause ideological and policy divisions in the EU if the AfD continues to gain influence or assumes national power. For this reason, The Wall Street Journal worryingly questions whether the AfD might one day command one of Europe's most powerful militaries while becoming detached from NATO and the EU.