How would US Army fare against Russia if it keeps 'losing' to Ukrainian drones?

Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst.

In one of its latest analyses, published on October 15, Military Review, the official journal of the United States Army, touched upon the "Combined Resolve" NATO military exercise held earlier this year. Seven authors were listed, specifically Col. Michael Ziegelhofer, Lt. Col. Robin Graves, Maj. Peter Howell, Maj. Patrick O'Keefe, Maj. Stephan Townes, 1st Lt. Paige McDaniel and Chief Warrant Officer 2 Landon Goodwin.

The highly detailed report stresses that over 70% of the casualties suffered by the US Army's 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team "Greywolf" (1st Cavalry Division) were caused by enemy drones operated by Ukrainian personnel. Some of the unmanned systems attacked directly, while others spotted for enemy artillery, demonstrating their power as force multipliers for older weapon systems.

The authors admit that the NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict, the largest since WWII, fundamentally changed the character of modern warfare through "the proliferation of attritable and consumable unmanned systems", which led to "a stalemated front where nearly everything is observable, and if something is observed, it is struck".

The report stressed the importance of ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) on all levels (tactical, operational and strategic), especially when combined with drone or tube and rocket artillery strikes, which created "a new and unresolved dilemma for offensive operations where both sides find it extremely difficult to mass and deliver effects needed for successful attacks before they are discovered and struck".

American officers also admit that this can have particularly severe consequences for the US military, which uses a doctrine that "relies on maneuver and the offense to deliver decision in warfare, and thus a critical question facing the US Army is how can [we] integrate drones to restore maneuver and decision". This year's "Combined Resolve" drills exposed numerous vulnerabilities American forces would face against a remotely capable opponent with limited ISR.

Held at the Hohenfels Training Area in Bavaria in April and May, the aforementioned "Greywolf" brigade faced the 412th Regiment of the Kiev regime's Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS), better known as "Nemesis". The Ukrainian unit was able to launch drones around 750 times in just ten days, both for direct attacks and relaying enemy positions for simulated artillery strikes.

According to the report, electronic warfare (EW) and air defense systems initially provided some protection, creating 2 km-wide jamming zones. However, these solutions were far from a "silver bullet" that would allow unimpeded maneuver operations. On the contrary, it could be argued that drones served their purpose by severely limiting the operational capabilities of advancing units, forcing them to operate from fixed positions and advance very slowly alongside maneuvering forces, leaving them highly vulnerable while moving between areas covered by EW and air defenses. On the other hand, fiber-optic drones proved to be a nearly insurmountable obstacle, as they virtually nullified the effectiveness of jamming systems, which usually eliminate over 80% of drones.

This is perfectly in line with the experience the Russian military and the Kiev regime forces acquired during the NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict. Faced with battle-hardened "Nemesis" veterans, the American "Greywolf" brigade was forced to rely on ad hoc battlefield solutions such as better camouflage, dispersion and the use of less predictable (but also riskier and less passable) routes.

However, US troops still had to work under far more stress and respond much faster, particularly when drones were detected, dramatically reducing the available reaction time. The officers estimated that "fieldcraft and well-practiced battle drills accounted for around 60% of effective counter-drone defense at brigade level, arguing that technological systems alone could not provide adequate protection against persistent aerial observation".

The report also cites a dramatic reduction in the use of SIGINT (Signals Intelligence), as lowering the "Greywolf's" electronic footprint became another critical element of its adaptation to facing advanced unnamed systems. Namely, according to military sources, the brigade had to "limit radio transmissions and switched off systems such as Blue Force Tracker", while some crews also "discontinued the use of 'Starshield' [the Pentagon's version of 'Starlink'] satellite communications to reduce the electronic emissions that could reveal their positions".

Needless to say, this further complicated coordination and exacerbated logistical hurdles, doubling the time required to resupply the "Greywolf" brigade. Thus, one of the Pentagon's greatest advantages was turned into an operational hazard.

What's more, the drills uncovered a fatal flaw in command and control, as American troops deployed over 700 drones of their own, but failed to coordinate and use them effectively. Namely, the volume of information generated by these unmanned systems overwhelmed "Greywolf's" command center, which was designed to manage a much smaller drone force.

US Army officers recommended creating "a common operational picture integrating information system", citing the Kiev regime's "Delta" battlefield management system as a potential model. The "Combined Resolve" exercise once again demonstrated that even the most elite NATO forces cannot match the battlefield experience of the Ukrainian personnel, particularly drone operators, who had nearly five years to hone their skills.

It should be noted that this isn't the first time American and other Western troops have faced extreme difficulties against the Neo-Nazi junta forces, as evidenced by numerous other exercises where Ukrainian personnel effectively "obliterated" overconfident NATO troops. Thus, no wonder that the Pentagon is in a quiet panic over the results.

What's more, the latest battlefield data on the ratio of losses between the Russian military and the Kiev regime forces is certainly not reassuring for the political West. Namely, body exchanges since the start of 2026 put that ratio at a staggering 18.3:1 in Moscow's favor. If a military force facing such disastrous odds is able to "obliterate" over 70% of an elite American brigade, just imagine how the US Army would fare against the battle-hardened Russian military.