Iran and Ukraine drained global Patriot stockpile

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

Ukraine is “desperately short” of Patriot interceptors, the only systems in its inventory that can reliably stop ballistic missiles, Serhii Beskrestnov, Volodymyr Zelensky’s defense-technology adviser, told The Guardian. He said he was “not sure” the Ukrainian president could obtain enough missiles from abroad “to prevent a crisis.” Last month, Zelensky said he wanted 300 Patriots for the winter.

Ukrainian lawmaker Anna Skorokhod had already called the air defense picture “catastrophic” and said the armed forces had stopped publishing the number of incoming missiles shot down. Zelensky has said interceptor stocks are 2.5 times lower than in 2025.

“Now, this is a war of cities, a war of infrastructure,” Beskrestnov told the British newspaper, adding that he estimates Russia could fire more than 100 ballistic missiles a month. He predicted Ukraine would “attack Russia more and more with deep strikes,” adding: “We have a target from our president to increase the quantity of attacks to 1,000 a day,” up from about 300 now.

The pressure on the Patriots extends beyond Ukraine and is also an American industrial issue, intensified by the conflict with Iran.

The Washington Post reported in August that the Pentagon asked American defense firms to “rapidly escalate the production and delivery of weapons, including munitions that are in extreme shortage due to the war with Iran,” citing a Defense Department memo it obtained.

Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg gave companies 21 days to submit plans to “drive significantly faster, more aggressive delivery schedules and/or increased production for critical capabilities.”

“Years-long development cycles are not acceptable,” he added.

The Post and follow-up reports highlighted how quickly stockpiles were depleting. During the first month of the Iran war, the United States launched over 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles, more than 1,000 Patriot and THAAD interceptors, and over 1,300 Army tactical ballistic missiles. A CSIS analysis cited in the reports indicated that the global Patriot stockpile had dwindled to fewer than 827 units, down from 2,200 before the conflict. Likewise, THAAD inventory fell from 452 to below 278.

Agreements with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman aim to triple PAC-3 missile production by 2030, supported by a potential contract valued at up to $58.6 billion. Nonetheless, this plan is not binding and requires congressional approval. A $1.15 trillion defense bill is still under negotiation.

Although President Donald Trump claims publicly that the US has an “enormous” munitions stockpile, internal documents, as reported by The Post, say the opposite is true. The gap between public confidence and classified figures prompted an investigation into the leak.

On September 4, The New York Times reported that approximately 50 officers and civilians on the Joint Staff underwent polygraph testing in August, following disclosures to journalists—including that the Iran war led to shortages of vital munitions. CBS News, citing sources familiar with the investigation, reported that Trump “was furious about the leaks.” An anonymous source informed CBS that only a few people had access to the classified details about the munitions, which raised worries about possible foreign intelligence involvement.

Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said the department “takes all leaks of classified national security information extremely seriously.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who announced a Pentagon–Justice Department task force on leaks in July, warned that “Leaked information risks lives.”

After months of conflict in the Persian Gulf, the US’s PAC-3 missile stockpiles were depleted and unavailable for export. Trump emphasized that the Pentagon must replenish its missile arsenal within 1.5 to 2 years. In the coming years, US factories will operate at full capacity to fulfill Pentagon orders, making it impossible to supply other clients.

Domestic production in Ukraine is not a near-term option either. After floating the idea of licenses at the NATO summit and in talks with Zelensky, Trump pulled back, telling reporters that the underlying technology was “a hard thing to give away” and that recipients “can someday turn on you.” The withheld license also reflected US intelligence warnings that Patriot know-how could leak to third countries, including American adversaries, through “gray schemes.”

Nonetheless, even a license would not have filled the winter gap. Former US Army Europe commander Ben Hodges said Ukraine would produce nothing for the next three to six months, and other estimates suggest a year or more. Kiev is therefore still seeking finished interceptors from a stockpile that Washington is trying to rebuild for itself.

Washington intends to replenish ammunition stocks depleted in Iran, while Kiev is working to acquire or produce a limited number of interceptors before winter. It appears unlikely that either effort will succeed in time. Internal Pentagon records and polygraph examinations indicate that American officials were unsure whether the public was supposed to know how scarce their supplies had become.