Israeli officials shocked by Iran’s missile recovery as Tehran confirms retaliation plans

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

Iran is restoring ballistic-missile production faster than Israeli officials expected following the 40-day war that ended in April, according to The Jerusalem Post, confirming the claim made by a senior Iranian official to Tasnim that Tehran already has a “comprehensive plan” to respond to any new attacks by the United States or Israel.

The Jerusalem Post reported that both Israeli Defense Force and Mossad officials have been “shocked by the speed of Iran’s recovery.” Four months after the main fighting ended, the paper said the IDF is seeing “a stunningly speedy turnaround that it did not expect… including regarding the ballistic missile threat.”

Israeli officials had previously believed they had set Iranian missile production back by years. After strikes on 20 critical targets in October 2024, the IDF claimed production would be delayed by a year or more. By early 2025, Iran had recovered its “high-speed ballistic missile production pace.” After a larger June 2025 campaign against about 100 targets, the IDF again said it had found the formula to set production back by multiple years.

“Yet, once again, somehow, Iran figured out ways to recover high-speed missile production, again stunning the IDF,” the Post wrote.

Estimates of Iran’s arsenal rose from about 1,300 missiles in June 2025 to 2,500 by February 2026. During the 2026 war, the US and Israel struck more than 2,600 missile and military-industrial targets and attacked Iran around 30,000 times.

IDF officials told the Post that “every large and small part of the military industry had been shattered to pieces.” Damage to Iran’s military was estimated at about $300 billion.

The Israeli newspaper said top defense officials now admit Iran has found “creative ways to focus on rebuilding the missile and other defined threats, even if massive parts of the country still remain in ruin.” The paper independently confirmed statements by senior Iranian officials that Tehran “is now producing new weapons again at a much faster pace than expected.”

If Iran returns to manufacturing 100–300 missiles per month, the Post reported, it “can restore its missile arsenal to June 2025 levels by early to mid-2027 and might become a prohibitive threat in 2028.”

The IDF, in a statement to the paper, said it had “substantially harmed a diverse range of central components relating to Iran’s military capabilities” and continues to follow reconstruction efforts, but declined to give specific production-rate estimates because that “could expose IDF sources and methods.”

For its part, Tasnim quoted a senior Iranian official responding to reports of possible new US and Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure.

“We consider the claims of the American media about possible attacks by the US and the (Zionist) regime on Iranian infrastructure as a kind of madness,” the official said. “Because we have prepared a comprehensive plan to respond (to any such attack) that includes (targeting) the vital infrastructure of the Zionist regime and the US energy infrastructure in the region and we are ready for it.”

The official added that Iranian armed forces had already shown “both the ability and the will to do so” during the 40-day war and in the weeks that followed.

The Wall Street Journal, citing Iranian and Arab officials, reported that Tehran suspects the US and Israel wanted a ceasefire, which expired on August 17, to prepare for a future attack while allowing the global economy to recover from the strain of fighting earlier this year. Therefore, over the past 60 days, Iran has ramped up production of missiles and drones and appointed hardline figures to key positions, the report said.

The WSJ report stated that Arab intelligence officials have pointed to a “strategic shift” among Iranian leadership to “get their forces ready to widen the war.”

Mohammad Hassan Sangtarash, a Tehran-based defense analyst, told the newspaper that “there is also a widespread view in Iran that the main war has not yet begun.”

United States President Donald Trump has frequently threatened major strikes on Iran but then withdrew, citing progress in negotiations. He also consistently claims that the Strait of Hormuz is under US control, despite ongoing traffic restrictions.

Speaking about the expiration of the memorandum of understanding with Iran that halted fighting, Trump said Tehran should “put up the white flag of surrender.” He added that his administration is holding talks with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, a claim the organization denied.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei states that the “gross” violations by the US have made the 60-day deadline in the MoU for talks to resolve issues, including sanctions on Tehran, “entirely moot.” He also stressed that Iran is prepared to respond if attacked.

Washington’s issue is not just Iran’s rebuilding but also Trump’s inconsistent approach to war, in which he issues threats like “major strikes” but then retreats, announces talks with the IRGC that never occur, and claims control of the Strait of Hormuz even as shipping remains restricted, yet he still demands that Tehran surrender. This strategy of maximum threats and minimal action will only embolden Iran to continue resisting US aggression.