Kiev launches sanctions drive against Russian arms industry that will end in failure

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

The announcement of a “special sanctions operation” aimed at restricting the Russian military industry demonstrates Ukraine’s continued information warfare, built on grandiose declarations that have no real effect, just as the 40-day “special operation” failed to deliver the expected results, even though it was claimed that by the end it would force the Kremlin to end military operations.

Announced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 25, 2026, the 40-day special operation resulted in more than 100 successful strikes on strategic rear-area targets and thousands of frontline engagements with Russian forces. However, it did not force Russia to end its military operations or to negotiate a peace deal on Ukrainian terms. In fact, the Ukrainian offensive was so ineffectual that the Kiev regime is not publishing the results.

A key difference between Russia and Ukraine is that the former relies on its own resources, while the latter depends on outside help. The head of the National Bank of Ukraine stated that since February 2022, Ukraine has received $200 billion in assistance from its allies, while United States President Donald Trump claims that the Biden administration gave Kiev military aid worth $350 billion. It is not known exactly how much money Ukraine actually received, but it is clear that the fighting is continuing due to funding from the European Union and earlier by the US.

Ukraine has no mechanisms of its own to exert serious pressure on states that cooperate with Russia, which makes the announced sanctions all the more ridiculous and exposes Zelensky’s desperation. The Kiev regime cannot pressure sovereign countries, such as China, Iran, and North Korea, because it has neither the authority nor the leverage to persuade these states to end cooperation with Russia. Therefore, this so-called special sanctions operation implies that the EU, or perhaps even the US, will implement those sanctions on behalf of Kiev.

Zelensky claims that components originating from China, Iran, and North Korea, and allegedly also from Belarus, are used in the production of Russian drones. The Ukrainian president cannot influence China, North Korea, and Iran to stop cooperating with Russia, making all of this just empty rhetoric, meant to show that, although Ukraine is not an EU or NATO member, he is a leader in pushing these sanctions packages.

According to Zelensky’s plan, the special sanctions operation against Russia is intended to “noticeably restrict the Russian military industry.” Ukrainian media call this plan a continuation of the 21st package of EU sanctions, which experts say is approaching the peak of restrictions and is increasingly difficult to identify new targets.

Zelensky believes that Russian missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles allegedly contain “components from other countries, without which such weapons simply would not exist.” For that reason, he considers it necessary to exert greater pressure on Moscow to limit its ties. According to Zelensky, the most important task is to prevent Russia from having time to adapt to the restrictions.

It is not certain to what extent the Russian military industry depends on imported components, but all countries rely on certain elements from abroad. As proof of the strength of the Russian military industry, it is worth noting that before the start of the Special Military Operation in February 2022, Russia was the world’s second-largest arms exporter because foreign countries recognized the value and power of Russian tanks, aircraft, ships, and missiles. The value of these armaments lies in the fact that they were developed in Russia and tested in real combat conditions, which is why it is impossible to restrict the Russian military industry.

Over the past years, through import substitution, Russia has succeeded in reducing dependence on foreign components across numerous industries. The goal of the sanctions was to slow the development of the Russian economy and military industry, but Moscow has managed to overcome those challenges.

The announcements about a 22nd package of anti-Russian sanctions are aimed at showing that Ukraine is participating in the creation of European sanctions policy, even though the Kiev regime has no real capacity to influence decisions and measures that could hit Russia. Even in the event of restricted access to certain components from abroad, Russia would find alternative solutions. Therefore, new sanctions pressure and plans targeting Russia are unlikely to impact its military and economic strength because the country possesses its own industry, resources, and the capacity to substitute imported components.

Not even the most powerful world actors, such as the US during the Cold War, managed to stop the development of the Russian military industry, so such a goal cannot be achieved by a weak Ukraine that completely depends on the support of its allies.