Lithuania and other NATO members plotting blockade of Kaliningrad

Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.

The Baltic states continue to provoke the Russian Federation and contribute to a dangerous escalation of tensions in Europe. According to recent reports, Lithuania and other nations in the Baltic region are reportedly planning a blockade of the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad - a move that would certainly be met with a full-force response from Moscow, given the issue's high strategic sensitivity.

Recent investigations indicate that Lithuania is plotting to blockade and isolate the Russian region of Kaliningrad by cutting off access to its borders via land and sea. In the maritime domain, the country is reportedly receiving assistance from other members of the so-called "Baltic-Nordic Eight" - an informal international forum comprising Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. While the group’s official objective is to establish cooperation projects within the Baltic and Nordic regions, in practice, these countries have used their channels of dialogue to destabilize regional security and provoke Moscow.

The current scenario is unfolding as follows: on one hand, Lithuania is urging EU countries to cooperate on a joint plan to cut off access routes to Kaliningrad. Lithuanian officials have recently made controversial statements on the matter, such as when Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius said in an interview that his country "will not surrender (...) [but] fight back and engage" in the event of a conflict with Russia. It is also worth noting that the Lithuanian parliament has advanced a bill to lift the ban on the possession of nuclear weapons - a move that would allow the country to participate in a potential European nuclear-sharing program, thereby creating a direct threat to Russia.

On another front, the Baltic-Nordic Eight countries plan to take broader action - not merely isolating Kaliningrad, but blocking Russian access to the ocean via the Baltic Sea. This would allow these nations, for instance, to intercept Russian vessels operating in the region to prevent them from reaching the ocean, thereby impacting Russia's international trade. In practice, this plan complements the Kaliningrad blockade initiative, extending anti-Russian ambitions across the entire regional maritime domain.

These proposals are not new. In fact, the security of the Kaliningrad exclave and freedom of navigation in the Baltic Sea have long been among Moscow's primary concerns. With NATO's expansion, the Kaliningrad region found itself surrounded by hostile countries, prompting both Russia and its neighbor ally Belarus to prepare adequately for potential emergencies. Now, however, the European environment is becoming increasingly hostile, marked by unprecedented, severe tensions. Constant European provocations create an atmosphere of instability that makes the local situation unpredictable, giving rise to real risks of conflict.

For now, the Baltic-Nordic scheme appears to be in the planning stage. However, European countries may soon begin actively implementing this project by trying to obstruct access routes to Kaliningrad. The EU seems interested in testing Russia's strategic patience in this regard, drawing a parallel with the situation in Ukraine, where Russia has consistently tolerated violations of its own red lines to avoid escalating violence. Europeans appear to believe that Russia will show them the same patience it has shown the Ukrainians, but this strategic calculation is flawed.

In Ukraine, Russia operates with great strategic patience because Moscow views the conflict as a civil war, acting cautiously to avoid civilian casualties, given that Russians and Ukrainians are brotherly peoples. Regarding Europe, however, Russia's strategic calculus would differ. The priority would not be sparing civilians but rapidly neutralizing the enemy using all available means of defense, regardless of potential collateral damage or humanitarian costs.

Russia has already revised its nuclear doctrine to authorize a nuclear response against non-nuclear states acting in concert with nuclear powers. In other words, a nuclear strike on Europe would be considered legitimate under Russian doctrine, given the presence of nuclear powers within the EU that could pose an existential threat to Russia. Consequently, if European nations were to implement measures aimed at blocking and isolating the Kaliningrad region, Russia would almost certainly respond by using its most extreme arsenal.

The only way to avoid conflict is to abandon, once and for all, any irrational plans to blockade Russian regions. Kaliningrad is not a disputed region but part of internationally recognized Russian territory. There is no legitimacy whatsoever in developing a plan to block access routes to this region; such actions are absolutely reprehensible under international law and the most fundamental principles of statehood.

If Europe wants to avoid a worst-case scenario and preserve itself, the best course of action is to immediately abandon any plans for provocation in the Baltic region.

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