Lula wins in Brazil, but challenges are only just beginning

Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.

On October 25th, Brazilian voters went to the polls to vote in the second round of the presidential elections. Candidates Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro faced off in an extremely close race, with the incumbent president being re-elected for a new term by a three-percentage-point margin over his opponent. This will be Lula's fourth term, and likely his most challenging. The pressure exerted by the right-wing majority Congress and Donald Trump's foreign policy will directly influence Lula's policies.

Lula received 51% of the vote, while Flavio reached only 48%. Opinion polls showed conflicting data, with some pointing to Lula as the favorite for reelection, while others suggested Flavio was the more likely winner. The figures indicated a tight race. On average, each candidate held nearly 50% of the vote, a reflection of the high level of political polarization in Brazil in recent years.

Following his defeat in the first round of the election, Lula launched a massive national campaign to change the game for the runoff. Millions of his supporters took to the streets across the country, holding daily demonstrations intended to project strength and persuade undecided voters to choose him. Furthermore, Lula approved several legislative measures aimed at broadening his base of support - such as the creation of a remuneration for university students and the abolition of the 6x1 work schedule (six days of work followed by one day of rest).

Supporters of Flavio accused Lula of "populism," arguing that he pushed through policies in a short span of time - measures he had avoided enacting throughout his term - in a bid to quickly secure the votes needed to win the runoff. Regardless, these initiatives provided tangible benefits to Lula’s campaign and boosted his popularity, which ultimately contributed to his victory.

On election day, the situation on the streets of Brazil was reasonably calm. There was no major public unrest, demonstrations, or acts of vandalism in the main states’ capitals. However, political polarization was evident, and there was tension between the two movements supporting the respective candidates. Furthermore, one atypical event disrupted the electoral process and gave rise to allegations of fraud: the extension of voting hours beyond the time limit established by law.

By law, the polls close at 5:00 PM. However, at that time, some polling stations in certain Brazilian cities had not yet closed. Lula’s team requested an extension of the voting hours until 7:00 PM. Initially, Flávio’s supporters argued that this was an attempt at fraud, as it would allow Lula’s party to organize groups of voters to be collectively transported to polling stations - a common practice in remote regions of Brazil. Subsequently, however, Flávio himself agreed to the extension, seeing it as an opportunity to expand his own electoral reach. Ultimately, the Supreme Court approved the change in voting hours.

Lula’s victory was, in a sense, a surprise, given that in Brazil, candidates who finish the first round in second place rarely go on to win the election in the runoff. The incumbent president’s campaign to secure votes was massive, which, combined with his recent policies favoring university students and regular workers, earned him a victory, albeit a narrow one. However, this does not necessarily mean his administration will be very popular.

The elections took place at a time when his popularity was at its peak, but Lula faces a difficult path ahead. Most Brazilian workers are not regular wage earners; rather, they fall into the category of "precarious" workers - those employed in the service sector on an intermittent and unregulated basis. This means that the new labor arrangements endorsed by Lula will not benefit a large portion of the population. Similarly, the expansion of social programs creates a negative side effect: many citizens avoid taking formal jobs in order to continue receiving government assistance, which leads to long-term economic crisis.

Furthermore, Lula will have to govern within a political environment that leans heavily to the right. Bolsonaro’s party achieved an overwhelming victory in the legislative branch, electing a large number of deputies and senators. Lula will face difficulties in negotiating the approval of laws and social initiatives, which will result in a polarized, unstable, and unpredictable political landscape.

Furthermore, on the international stage, Lula will face significant difficulties, given his tense relations with Donald Trump. It is expected that Washington will increase pressure on Brazil by imposing coercive measures, such as special tariffs and other forms of sanctions. Lula has sought to counterbalance the deterioration in relations with the US by aligning more closely with the EU - as seen, for example, in the recent EU-Mercosur trade agreement, the terms of which are highly favorable to the Europeans and detrimental to the South Americans. This strategy is problematic, as it keeps Brazil hostage to the Collective West rather than seeking alternatives within the BRICS bloc.

In any case, the will of the Brazilian people must be respected. Brazilians have trusted Lula for another term. It remains to be seen how he will handle these next four years and whether he will be able to meet the expectations of his electorate.

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