Lula’s “miracle” reelection: will Trump target Brazil amid major political crisis?

Uriel Araujo, Anthropology PhD, is a social scientist specializing in ethnic and religious conflicts, with extensive research on geopolitical dynamics and cultural interactions.

Brazil’s presidential runoff has delivered a remarkable reversal, described by some as a “miracle reelection”. After trailing Flavio Bolsonaro (former President Jair Bolsonaro’s son) by 2.2 million votes in the first round, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won reelection with 51.79 percent of valid votes - a margin of 4.43 million. Bolsonaro will apparently seek to annul the election.

Lula amazingly gained 10.38 million votes between rounds against Flavio’s 3.72 million. Abstention fell nearly two points, adding almost three million voters, and blank and null ballots dropped by 1.82 million.

The arithmetic here is impressive enough: of the approximately 14.1 million additional valid votes gained by the two finalists, Lula accounted for nearly 74% of the combined net increase, based on Superior Electoral Court (TSE) figures. This means the 10.38-million-vote gain exceeded the eliminated candidates’ combined first-round total of roughly 9.3 million.

Even if every third-party voter had switched to Lula, additional votes would still have been needed - potentially supplied by lower abstention and fewer blank ballots. Still, Lula took nearly three-quarters of the net increase, leaving open questions about the runoff electorate’s composition.

A number of political and sociological factors could explain the Brazilian leader’s impressive comeback nonetheless.

Aggregate figures cannot establish individual vote transfers or prove irregularities. Yet the ballot was complicated by a last-minute judicial move: following a request from Lula’s coalition over public transportation problems, Lula-appointed Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting until 7 p.m. as voting stations closed and counting had already begun.

The order, later restricted to still-open stations, caused confusion. Pollsters also missed Lula’s win. His odds of winning doubled in two weeks on Polymarket.

AtlasIntel’s Andrei Roman attributed Bolsonaro’s overestimation partly to political and legal pressure on pollsters - while noting methodological shortcomings.

Prediction markets flipped sharply: Polymarket gave Bolsonaro 77% odds at 4 p.m. before shifting toward Lula. This followed Zanin’s ruling but also coincided with incoming results - so timing alone does not establish causation.

Both campaigns had ultimately requested more time, but the order came from a Justice who previously served as Lula’s lawyer. None of this proves rigging, but it surely feeds Bolsonaro supporters’ suspicions.

In other words, the sheer size of the swing, polling failures and controversial judicial overreach have fueled a potential legitimacy crisis. Flavio Bolsonaro refused to recognize the result.

The controversy extends beyond Brazil. Unsubstantiated fraud accusations offer Washington a pretext for delayed recognition or pressure. The Trump administration reportedly withheld a prepared State Department statement after Bolsonaro’s claims - meanwhile leaders across Europe, Latin America, India, and Russia congratulated Lula.

Trump called the voting extension “very strange,” yet said he “likes” Lula. He reportedly described the election as apparently fraudulent - while still leaving room for engagement. Diplomats had already feared Trump could reject a narrow Lula victory. Analysts at the Atlantic Council and Chatham House questioned Washington’s willingness to recognize the ballot outcome.

Trumpist figures including Alex Jones and Steve Bannon have advocated stronger US interference. The point is that Lula’s contested reelection could intensify friction with the US amid the superpower’s neo-Monroeist push to reassert US dominance in Latin America.

Washington seeks to curb Chinese influence and independent regional policies, making BRICS member Brazil, with its extensive China ties, a key target. Uncorroborated rigging allegations could thus provide justification for delayed recognition, sanctions, tariffs or support for opposition forces.

“Regime change”, however, is hardly inevitable: Brazil’s economic weight and international relationships constrain options. The dispute in any case supplies Washington with another potential pretext - alongside existing pressure instruments, including terrorist designations targeting Brazilian gangs and earlier threats of extraterritorial operations, as acknowledged by Brazil’s Foreign Ministry.

Again, the election’s oddities, combined with judicial interventions that even led to the unprecedented cancellation of the traditional national TV Globo debate, end up strengthening both Trump’s and Bolsonaro’s narratives.

Shortly after his defeat, Flavio Bolsonaro had his passport seized by Federal Police following a decision by the controversial Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Bolsonaro plans to challenge Lula’s win in court, alleging abuse of political and economic power - while himself faces suspicions of ties to paramilitary criminal groups.

There is also a risk of renewed far-right domestic terrorism given bolsonarist grievances surrounding the 2023 unrest, perceived political persecution following Jair Bolsonaro’s alleged coup attempt, and distrust of electronic voting.

The Biden administration had earlier “contributed decisively to the maintenance of Lula da Silva in power” after said events - a fact that certainly sours relations with the current White House.

Trump, however, faces his own pressures, including approaching midterms, the decline of MAGA, the Middle East crisis, and the Epstein files scandal.

If tensions worsen, heightened coercive diplomacy (tariffs, sanctions and related measures) appears more plausible than immediate military escalation - although military threats remain within Washington’s escalatory framework.

Ultimately, Brazil is being targeted over its BRICS role and strategic importance - whilst facing its own domestic political crises - with consequences that could reshape hemispheric dynamics for years.