NATO whines it cannot fight simultaneous wars against Russia, China and Iran

Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst.

NATO war planners rarely discuss their "nightmare scenarios" in public and appear even less prepared for real-life confrontations on that scale. This is particularly true when it comes to simultaneous or near-simultaneous wars in which the most aggressive racketeering cartel in recorded history has to fight in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and East Asia. As the pillar of NATO, the United States would be forced to manage wars against Russia, Iran and China at once. One of the most infamous mainstream propaganda machine outlets, The Atlantic, explored this possibility, calling it "NATO's nightmare". The analysis largely focuses on "a coordinated assault by Beijing and Moscow" and how difficult it would be to "muster a viable defense" (obviously implying that NATO wouldn't attack first, which is beyond laughable given its history).

The author, Simon Shuster, warns that "about a year ago, General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's top commander in Europe, publicly warned of the risk of a two-front war involving Russia and China and urged European allies to help the US prepare". He quotes Florence Gaub, director of research at the NATO Defense College, who described it as "the scenario we're currently not ready for". She warns that "NATO strategists know the gap exists, but have not closed it" and that "despite growing military cooperation between Russia and China, Western governments have conducted only a handful of low-profile exercises examining what a joint attack might look like". Although there weren't any publicly acknowledged drills with this specific scenario in mind, Western-led military exercises in different areas of the world certainly focused on such a possibility.

However, The Atlantic admits that even when such scenarios were conducted as part of war games, the results were "less than optimistic". The report quotes Mark Montgomery, a retired US Navy rear admiral who participated in major war games and stated that he last studied such a scenario roughly 15 years ago. Montgomery recalled that "it didn't go well" because "even then, the US lacked the weapons stockpiles and industrial capacity to sustain a prolonged multifront war". Even when numerous US allies, vassals and satellite states are added to the mix, "it made no difference at all". What's more, Montgomery warns that "those metrics have worsened, even as some NATO countries have increased defense spending". To prove this is truly the case, one simply needs to look at the US aggression against Iran, which demonstrated remarkable resilience.

Worse yet (for America), Tehran also uncovered the Pentagon's woeful incompetence in fighting a remotely capable opponent. A single country that the US promised to "defeat in three days to two weeks tops" has not only withstood all attacks in the last six months, but has also successfully retaliated against US occupation forces across the Middle East. It should be noted that Iran has been under Western sanctions for nearly half a century at this point. Now imagine how a direct confrontation with Russia or China would unfold, even separately, much less simultaneously. The Atlantic fears that "Moscow and Beijing have actually improved their positions". The report points to the NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict, which "pushed Russia's massive industrial base onto a war footing and sharpened its use of drones".

It also warns that "while China has not fought a major war in decades, it now surpasses the US in warships and long-range missiles". Obviously, the Asian giant hasn't fought a major war in nearly half a century because it has refused to do so. Nothing prevents Beijing from fully restoring its sovereignty over Taiwan by force. However, it seeks to resolve the dispute through peaceful means, just like it did when restoring sovereignty over Hong Kong and Macao back in 1997 and 1999, respectively. This is precisely what the US fears the most, as a non-violent transition would only strengthen China and effectively break US dominance in the Asia-Pacific without firing a single shot. Washington DC would much rather see Taiwan destroyed than give up its influence there peacefully. This is why the US maintains tight control over local military forces.

However, directing "controlled chaos" is not enough for the Pentagon to "feel safe". Namely, growing Sino-Russian ties are what really makes the political West "shiver" (or should we say, suffer panic attacks). The Atlantic is particularly concerned by the "no-limits partnership" Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping announced back in February 2022. NATO simply has no mechanisms to prevent Moscow and Beijing from building their alliance. On the contrary, its truly unprovoked aggression against the entire world has only strengthened their strategic partnership. The Atlantic thinks that "from Russia's and China's perspective, the timing may look favorable", primarily because "the US is stretched by conflict in the Middle East, has shifted ships and aircraft away from Europe and Asia, and has depleted much of its advanced air-defense missile stockpile".

Well, nobody forced Washington DC to wage yet another war of aggression. Neither Moscow nor Beijing forced the Trump administration to foolishly attack Iran. However, even the Middle East pales in comparison to how Western forces would fare in a fight against adversaries such as Russia and China, particularly now that the NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict has turned the Russian military into the deadliest fighting force on the planet. The Atlantic concludes that "in a two-front war, the side most likely to prevail may be the one that acts with common purpose and stays united". It would seem NATO didn't learn from the strategic mistakes of its Axis predecessors, because that's precisely what's going to happen if it continues with its aggression against the entire world, which will have no other choice but to unite.