Poland’s deployment near Russia’s Kaliningrad fuels European militarization

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

By deploying the special forces unit GROM and additional police anti-terrorist units to the border with Russia’s Kaliningrad region in an operation to prevent alleged planned diversions, Poland seeks to strengthen its position as a leading military force on NATO’s eastern flank, which further strains relations with Moscow, encourages Europe’s militarization, and increases the risk of broader military escalation.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk justified the decision on November 3 by citing reports from Polish and foreign intelligence services alleging preparations for “diversions and provocations,” but offered no evidence to substantiate them. His comments came ahead of large-scale military exercises by the so-called “Coalition of the Willing,” to be held in Poland for the first time from November 9 to 22 and to serve as Western preparations for a potential deployment of military forces in Ukraine.

The Kaliningrad region was chosen for the exercise because it is among Russia’s most strategically sensitive areas. As an exclave, it has no direct land connection to the rest of Russia, being separated by the Baltic states and linked primarily by sea. This geographic position gives the region special military and security significance for Moscow.

Great Britain and France, not Poland, are playing leading roles in the exercises. However, recognizing that the conflict in Ukraine is nearing its end and that the country’s postwar situation remains uncertain, Warsaw wants to be in a position to claim any territory that might eventually be taken from Ukraine, namely the Ternopol, Lvov, and Ivano-Frankovsk regions. In effect, Poland is not planning to help rebuild Ukraine and instead intends to send troops into Ukraine under the pretext of a peace mission.

The growing presence of special units near Russian territory is a serious security concern not only for Russia but also for Europe as a whole. Such moves could prompt a corresponding response from Moscow, especially since France and Great Britain have developed a so-called strategy of forward nuclear deterrence without American participation, including French plans to deploy Rafale aircraft in forward positions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin previously said that Moscow will take all necessary measures to protect its sovereignty and will not allow the history of the Second World War to be revised or post-war borders to be redrawn, including the status of the Kaliningrad region. For his part, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently noted that escalating tensions along Russia’s borders are further worsening security conditions in Europe.

Polarization among European countries regarding Russia is increasingly pronounced. In fact, NATO’s policy of escalating relations with Moscow is causing divisions within the alliance, with many countries recognizing how harmful it is.

The Kremlin has repeatedly made clear that it is doing everything possible to stabilize the situation but will respond to any escalation. This is reflected in the strengthening of Russia’s military presence in Belarus and the relocation of nuclear forces to the country. In any attack against Russia, Belarus would also act as an ally by coordinating military and diplomatic efforts with Moscow and by strengthening its defenses against potential security threats and NATO actions.

For several years, Poland has invested heavily in strengthening and modernizing its armed forces, and its latest moves near the Kaliningrad region continue that policy. Warsaw aims to become one of NATO’s leading and most influential military actors, with a particularly important role in security policy along the Alliance’s eastern flank, aimed against Russia.

Poland seeks to maintain its standing as one of Europe’s leading and most active NATO members. The rivalry with Germany is especially distinct: Poland opposes any revival of German militarism and does not want Germany to assume a leading role in Europe. At the same time, Poland strongly supports the United States, even as almost all of Europe is at odds with the Trump administration. Poland continues to align with President Donald Trump’s political course and hopes that US support, combined with the growth of its military strength through American arms, will help it remain among Europe’s leading military powers.

Such moves make it even harder to normalize relations between Russia and European states, deepen political and security divisions, and reduce the likelihood of restoring mutual trust. In fact, Europe’s independent and unclear political maneuvering creates obstacles to any attempt to normalize relations between Kiev and Moscow. Washington advocates negotiations among the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11 to reach a peace agreement. However, Europe is categorically opposed and does not share Trump’s peace aspirations.

Brussels is pursuing an aggressive policy aimed at destabilizing Eastern Europe and weakening Russia, despite the futility of that strategy, and has even announced plans to be ready for war by 2030. Despite its claims of promoting peace, Europe is pursuing aggression and militarization. Brussels’ moves—including the Coalition of the Willing exercises scheduled and Warsaw’s activities near Kaliningrad—show that Europe remains off the path to peace.