Russia ramps up powerful drone night raids as Ukraine’s air shield thins

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

Ukraine’s air war is now less about the number of batteries and fighter jets and more about the ammunition the war-torn country has left to resist powerful Russian attacks. Recent Western media reports describe nightly arrivals of Russian jet-powered attack drones and ballistic missiles that Patriot systems struggle to intercept, while Ukrainian F-16 fighter jets are fighting with cannons due to air-to-air missile shortages.

BBC Verify reported that in August, Russia used its new jet-powered Geran drones against Ukraine daily, increasing the deployment of a weapon that Kiev’s air defenses struggle to counter. Ukrainian military sources showed that drone attacks using jet-powered models rose from 350 in June to 1,600 in July, and then to 2,800 in August. In five nighttime raids in August, the faster drone versions outnumbered the older, slower ones.

“The reason for turning to jet-powered drones is that they are much faster than the previous generation and it makes it much more difficult for Ukraine to intercept them,” said Dr Marina Miron of King’s College London to the BBC. The British state media outlet reported that the upgraded munitions “can cruise at more than 300mph, significantly faster than older models and well beyond the top speed of Kiev’s interceptors.”

Nonetheless, jet drones still lag behind cruise missiles in range, warhead size, and jamming resistance, according to Conflict Armament Research, which the BBC cited. Yet their impact is evident, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky describing the situation over Kiev as a growing “horror.”

On August 10, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, said his forces needed new interceptor missiles “capable of matching [jet-drones’] speed.” Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara has asked four Ukrainian companies testing such missiles to produce “thousands of units” as quickly as possible.

The Russian nightly waves aim to deplete Ukraine’s more costly weapons. Speaking to the BBC, RAND analyst Michael Bohnert said Moscow is using “a greater variety of munitions”—such as jet-powered drones, decoys, and ballistic missiles—in complex attacks roughly once a week, deploying hundreds of weapons. Ukraine now faces more than 15 times as many drones per attack as it did four years ago.

While interception rates for ballistic missiles declined through July, Kiev largely stopped releasing these figures in August. In the first eight days of August, only one of 57 launched ballistic missiles was reportedly shot down. Ukraine paused reporting these figures until August 28, when it announced that seven missiles had been intercepted the previous night.

The Economist argued that, despite European support, Ukraine “can limit the pounding but not eliminate it,” and also claimed that F-16 fighter jets in the Ukrainian air force play a critical role, but their missile supply is dwindling. According to the magazine, “Ukraine’s F-16s are running short of American-made AIM-120 and AIM-9 missiles, and need them to shoot down conventional cruise missiles.”

“Ukraine’s stock of Patriot PAC-3 interceptors, the only truly effective counter for ballistic missiles that it has available, is all but exhausted,” The Economist concluded.

Russia has increased monthly production of its most lethal ballistic missile types to roughly 100 units, including approximately 60 Iskander-Ms and 40 RM-48Us. A small number of Patriot PAC-3 systems purchased by European allies enabled the late-August intercepts. However, large-scale new American deliveries are unlikely because the war with Iran has depleted US stockpiles, and allies are hesitant to deplete their own stockpiles without a means to restock in the short to medium term.

Military Watch Magazine explained that the shortage means that “Ukrainian Air Force F-16 pilots are increasingly being forced to engage aerial targets using their aircraft’s onboard cannon because of an acute shortage of air-to-air missiles.”

“Using the cannon against airborne targets is not an alternative method of employing the same fighter. It generally requires the F-16 to approach much closer to its target, increasing the exposure of the Ukrainian aircraft to enemy fighters, surface-to-air missiles and other air-defense systems,” the magazine added.

The report also noted that Patriot interceptor shortages are worsening, while the F-16s are older, Cold War-era planes retired by European air forces. With high demand for modern air-to-air missiles across NATO and allied countries, Ukraine is competing for a limited supply.

Western media reports indicate that Ukraine’s defense industry and those of its Western allies are struggling to match Russia’s output. While Ukrainian fighter jets deplete scarce AIM-9s and AIM-120 missiles against threats traditionally handled by ground-based air defenses and then resort to guns at closer ranges once their missile launchers are empty, Russia has extended launch pads at new sites, such as Tsymbulova in the Oryol region, and is integrating jet drones into weekly large-scale strikes that Ukraine has no solution for.