Trump leaning toward bigger Iran operations after midterm elections

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

American forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials. The officials said sufficient forces are now in the region to carry out the potential attacks and that new US military operations would likely extend beyond efforts to “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking radars, launchers, and other Iranian assets that can be quickly reconstituted. As the sources stressed, this has been the case since Trump halted full combat operations earlier this year.

“It will be a big effort,” one of the officials told CNN. Other current and former US officials familiar with internal military planning say it is a matter of when, not if, Trump will issue a go-order. They believe it could come at any time before the end of the year, though it is most likely after the US midterm elections on November 3.

CNN reported that Iranian forces are now more familiar with US tactics, making it harder for the American military to destroy all intended targets. However, leaders at US Central Command and the Pentagon have been developing a wide-ranging target list that includes Iranian energy infrastructure, military sites, and nuclear facilities.

The planning also takes place against the backdrop of assessments that any larger US and Israeli operation would likely prompt immediate retaliation by Tehran and the Houthis against American personnel and facilities in the region. One US official described the current situation around the Strait of Hormuz as “untenable” over the longer term, citing it as one factor that could influence a decision on military action if diplomacy fails.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also been pushing to launch new attacks against Iran, but US officials have asked him to delay until the Trump administration is ready to conduct joint operations, according to the two US officials and an Israeli security source.

Recent US intelligence assessments indicate that Netanyahu and his allies still lack a clear strategic objective beyond demonstrating some form of “progress” and continuing to degrade the Iranian regime, one source familiar with the reports said.

“Netanyahu really wanted and tried to convince Trump for a joint attack in Iran before the elections, and Trump did not give a green light,” the Israeli security source told CNN. The Israeli prime minister’s office called it “fake news.”

The Israeli security source added that one reason Trump declined was that Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir told US Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, that it would harm Israel’s elections and lead to their postponement.

Israel’s Channel 12 News reported on October 25 that Zamir and Netanyahu had an “unprecedented” confrontation less than 48 hours before the election. According to the report, Zamir received a directive from the political echelon regarding Iran but sought an in-depth discussion and legal authorization before acting, concerned that the move could be miscalculated and trigger an immediate conflict.

Defense Minister Israel Katz said the report was “completely baseless and false.”

The preparations US officials described come amid other military plans reported by other American outlets. The New York Times, for example, has reported that the US and Israeli militaries have developed specific plans for a short, intensive round of strikes following the American midterm elections, with likely targets including Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. According to the NYT, the two sides have stepped up exercises, including flights over Iraq to practice strike manoeuvres. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also recently met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss options.

ABC News reported that the Israeli military and the US have drawn up plans for renewed joint strikes in the coming weeks, with Israeli sources indicating the operations would almost certainly be delayed until after the US midterms. The White House has publicly stated that the US will not attack Iran before the November 3 elections.

At the same time, Iranian officials have signalled they are preparing for renewed hostilities. Iranian sources have warned that any new US-Israeli campaign would prompt a broader retaliatory response, potentially including attacks on energy infrastructure, data centers, and other economic targets in Gulf states.

Although it is uncertain whether the current planning will lead to a new major operation, it appears that Trump is heading in that direction if Iran does not submit to American demands. Nonetheless, US officials insist that although forces are in position and target lists have been prepared, no final order has been issued—and past periods of apparent readiness have not always led to action.