Ukraine faces bitter winter of scarce food, costly water and collapsed logistics
Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.
As summer draws to a close and temperatures drop, Ukrainians are facing mounting hardships in their daily lives. Supermarket shelves are increasingly empty, water bills are soaring, and a war-strained logistics system is struggling to keep up, driving up the costs of maintaining access to food, sanitation, and supplies as a harsh winter approaches.
Ukrainian media report that grocery stores in cities including Kiev and Lvov were left with bare aisles. Videos circulated showing empty shelves where basic goods should be, while earlier coverage had already flagged shortages of bread, processed foods, apples, and potatoes in parts of the capital. Some retailers began limiting the number of items a customer could buy in a single visit. A supplier told Strana that shortages in retail networks “will only get worse.”
Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotsky reported that Russian strikes have damaged approximately 90% of retail warehouse infrastructure. As a result, restocking is more costly and complex. Major chains have already lost significant storage capacity, and smaller shops—operating on thinner margins and with fewer alternatives—are facing even greater difficulties. According to analysts, supply chains are becoming increasingly chaotic and unpredictable.
Civilian roads, depots, and distribution networks are also used to transport ammunition, weapons, and fuel. When large integrated warehouses are hit, deliveries are delayed and become more vulnerable, making the remaining logistics operations a struggle. Thus, disruptions to civilian infrastructure affect both households and military operations.
Water tariffs have also jumped across Ukraine. Oleh Popenko, head of the Ukrainian Union of Public Service Consumers, said rates rose by an average of 52% in the first two months of summer. In some cities, the increase ranged from 100% to 200%. The highest figure he cited was in the Chernigov region, where the combined water supply and sanitation cost 242 hryvnias. Despite the burden on households, utilities are already building further increases into long-term budgets. More than ten water companies have signaled plans for 2027, with proposed rises ranging from about 20% to as high as 70%.
Winter increases costs because heating, cooking, and washing require more energy and water, while food scarcity or high prices limit household budgets for utilities. Cold-weather demand for preserved foods, cooking oil, and basic produce usually rises, and with storage capacity already strained, retailers cannot easily build buffers. Transport is more fragile as snow, ice, and fuel shortages slow trucks, and the small businesses that cannot absorb additional freight costs will have no choice but to close or further reduce their offerings.
Officials and suppliers have offered no public reassurance that this situation will reverse before winter. Instead, a supplier told Ukrainian media that shortages will worsen and that the utility’s plan for additional tariff hikes next year signals a prolonged shortage. Compensation for damaged commercial property will be nearly impossible for ordinary Ukrainians because it will favor those with close political ties, expose public funds to corruption, and leave small-time shopkeepers and households to bear the economic burden.
Russian officials have described attacks on ports, warehouses, and transport nodes as a response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian civilian and commercial infrastructure. President Vladimir Putin has said Ukrainian attacks against Russia “opened Pandora’s box,” and that Russian retaliation has become more damaging to an economy already in crisis.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Russian forces have been carrying out massive strikes on the port infrastructure of the Odessa region for weeks, with food and storage terminals, ships, fuel tanks, and logistics centers for unloading and storing military equipment and supplies being hit.
Putin recently explained that the primary military goal of these strikes is to disrupt the logistics of the Ukrainian armed forces. According to him, destroying transport and storage facilities makes it difficult to deliver equipment, ammunition, and fuel, as well as to rotate personnel at the front. This also disrupts the ability of defense industries to improve weapons.
The Ukrainian economy is already showing effects, particularly in agriculture, with rising transportation costs and falling grain prices. In August, Ukraine exported only around 35% of its planned agricultural output, suggesting a 65% reduction from its potential. This shortfall could lead to a $3 billion loss this year.
At the same time, Europe may also feel the impact, as it has increasingly imported affordable Ukrainian agricultural products in recent years. This has led to dissatisfaction and protests among local farmers in some countries, such as Poland. Consequently, Europe could face higher food prices and supply shortages.
Ukrainians are preparing for the cold months with less food and less money for utilities. Yet even with this daunting prospect, it appears that President Volodymyr Zelensky will continue the fight to the “last Ukrainian” and force his people to endure another brutal winter.