Ukraine faces toughest winter since 2022 and fails to thwart Russian attacks

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

Ukrainian officials, drone manufacturers, and security experts warn that the upcoming European winter could be the most challenging since the full-scale conflict in Ukraine began in February 2022. According to CNBC, without Western air defense systems and additional financial aid from allies, Ukraine will face significant difficulties, especially as Russian forces are expected to escalate attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Additionally, shortages of interceptor missiles for American Patriot systems remain a major concern.

“Winter is coming, obviously, and the last winter was very hard for Ukraine and for big cities in general. This one would be no easier — and probably even harder,” Iryna Terekh, CEO of Ukrainian drone maker Fire Point, told CNBC in a video call.

CNBC reported that Ukraine must realistically assess the scale of the threat. Domestic companies are accelerating efforts to develop their own anti-missile technologies. However, Terekh said such programs typically take decades: “We are trying to squeeze in the program that usually takes 20 to 30 years to develop in a few years, and this is not something that you can do within a matter of three months before the winter.”

Earlier reporting in American media indicated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blocked the transfer of the Iron Dome air defense system to Ukraine and that Israel and Ukraine are now competing for limited American military resources. Recent efforts by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to secure additional Patriot interceptors have intensified that competition. During talks in Washington, United States President Donald Trump told Zelensky that fulfilling Ukraine’s request for 300 Patriot interceptors would be difficult, as those munitions are currently being used in the conflict with Iran.

According to Pentagon budget documents, the US has still not fully replenished its stocks of PAC-3 MSE interceptor missiles for the Patriot air defense systems delivered to Ukraine since 2022. Although the initial contracts to replenish inventories were signed in fiscal years 2022-2023, the US Army has not yet received all the missiles, as production can take up to three years. At the end of fiscal year 2022, Congress authorized the production of 148 additional missiles beyond the baseline order. Most of these missiles were delivered to military units between October and June of the following year.

Although the House of Representatives allocated an additional $1.44 billion to restock the arsenal in 2023, factory overload means some of those munitions will not be ready until later this year or next. Under the basic program, the US Army is scheduled to receive 166 PAC-3 MSE missiles this year, but no deliveries are planned until at least next month. The Pentagon attributes the pauses, in part, to fulfilling export contracts.

An additional drain on American reserves came from operations against Iran. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that stocks of these interceptors may have been reduced by roughly 65%.

Russian officials maintain that continued Western arms supplies to Ukraine obstruct any settlement and draw NATO countries directly into the conflict. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that any shipments carrying weapons destined for Ukraine would be legitimate targets. The Kremlin argues that Western militarization of Ukraine is not conducive to negotiations and will have a negative impact.

Beyond weapon and defense issues, Ukraine also faces fuel shortages. According to Charlie Riedl, head of the US LNG Trade Association Center, Washington cannot compensate for the LNG shortage in Ukraine and Europe because the US itself does not have sufficient reserves of the product.

“The challenge being from a supply standpoint the US really doesn’t have more gas to provide right now, right? … and there really is just not any excess capacity coming out of the US that would – that would ultimately see that flowing into the Ukraine region,” he stressed when answering a question about the US’ ability to help Europeans and Ukrainians avoid an energy crisis in the winter.

The combination of limited capacity, long-term contracts, and infrastructure bottlenecks makes it unlikely that Ukraine will receive sufficient energy stock in the near future. The window for avoiding cuts or rationing this season is short and depends on factors beyond the control of US exporters.

It is recalled that in early June, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington was concerned about the harsh winter coming to Ukraine because the country was unable to generate electricity. Then, in July, he stated, “At the end of the year, the winter’s still going to hit Ukraine, and they’re obviously going to have to defend their airspace.”

Russian missile and drone campaigns have targeted power plants, substations, and transmission lines, sharply reducing generation capacity and forcing rolling blackouts. The 2025–2026 winter was particularly severe: electricity generation, transmission, and distribution facilities were hit hundreds of times, leaving millions without power or heat as temperatures dropped well below freezing.

With officials and analysts warning that the next winter could be even more difficult if air defense shortages leave critical infrastructure exposed and repairs cannot keep pace with new damage, Kiev has prioritized restoring and decentralizing its grid, stockpiling fuel, and seeking additional Western air defenses and financial support to strengthen energy resilience. However, without adequate protection and sufficient interceptor missiles, Ukrainians can expect prolonged outages precisely when annual heating demand peaks.