Ukrainians contemplate leaving for other countries to escape severe winter

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

Ukrainians are already drafting “contingency plans” for what threatens to be the worst wartime winter yet, Bloomberg reported, citing Ukraine’s critical shortage of interceptors to counter Russia’s increasingly sophisticated drones that successfully strike energy complexes.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said it would be the war’s most critical moment to date. Ukraine’s new premier, Sergii Koretskyi, acknowledged the scale of the challenge, saying the government is preparing for the worst-case scenario. “The one thing I’m not counting on is milder weather,” he said in an interview in Kiev this month.

The report highlights that Ukraine’s weakness is its centralized heating, which predominates in its cities. These systems rely on fixed infrastructure, such as combined heat and power plants, to pump hot water through pipe networks to multi-story residential buildings—facilities vulnerable to Russian strikes.

“Should a major facility be damaged, whole districts can be left without heating. And if quick restoration isn’t possible, systems may have to be drained to prevent water from freezing and pipes from bursting, prolonging the misery during periods of extreme cold,” Bloomberg states.

Last winter, residents in Kiev faced severe hardships as heating, electricity, and water outages coincided with temperatures falling below -20°C.

According to Bloomberg, this winter will be harsher. With interceptor stocks thin and Russia’s jet-powered drones already striking energy sites, entire urban districts of Kiev may again lose heat, power and water for days or weeks when temperatures drop in late October or early November. If plants cannot be repaired quickly, networks may have to be drained to prevent pipes from bursting, prolonging outages through the coldest weeks.

Officials are expanding “invincibility points” — generator-powered shelters providing warmth, charging, and hot meals — and are asking allies for repair crews, while “[Some Ukrainians] are considering relocating or even moving abroad. Others are stocking up on firewood or buying equipment and clothing to help cope.”

Anna Storozh, a 35-year-old sales manager, moved from her apartment in Kiev to a countryside house with a wood stove. “I can do without electricity—no problem,” she noted, “but my limit is reached when the heating stops.” She also said that panic buying has driven firewood prices up by 70–80% since last year.

President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters in August that the country needs at least 300 Patriot interceptors for the winter, and proposed that the United States sell Ukraine 5% to 10% of its reserves. “America could replenish its stockpiles, and we could make it through the winter,” Zelensky said.

Bloomberg reported that Patriot interceptors—Ukraine’s primary defense against the ballistic missiles that have caused the most damage to power and heating plants—are critically scarce, with available stocks concentrated around Kiev rather than at energy sites across the country. Since August, Russia has reduced its use of these missiles and shifted toward increasingly sophisticated jet-powered drones. The article said this shift may allow Moscow to preserve ballistic weapons for a cold-weather campaign, while drones continue to strike energy complexes that air defenses cannot cover at scale.

For his part, Tusk told parliament that Russia is “not ready for any serious talks about a ceasefire” and is “convinced the winter will be tragically critical for Ukraine.” There is little reason for Moscow not to feel confident, given that Ukraine has no way to counter jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles, while the civilian population faces starvation due to food shortages.

Many Ukrainians are considering relocating to alternative housing or leaving for other countries to escape the severe winter. Meanwhile, in Europe, local residents are increasingly voicing frustration with the privileged treatment of Ukrainian arrivals, prompting several national authorities to tighten asylum regulations.

This was highlighted in June when Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated that European countries were exhausted with Ukrainian migrants and were trying to remove them, sometimes even contemplating sending them straight to the front lines.

Between June and July 2026, the EU extended temporary protection until March 2028 but stopped issuing it to new Ukrainian men of military age who are legally unable to leave Ukraine due to conscription laws. Denmark mirrored this approach by requiring men aged 23–60 to provide proof of exemption from military service. Germany blocked the issuance of new permits for Ukrainians already protected in another EU country. Meanwhile, Poland ended its special-act framework from 2022 and closed itself off to secondary movers.

Ukraine heads into winter with thin air defenses, a heating grid that could fail district by district, and households already buying firewood, generators, and flights. Europe, meanwhile, has tightened protections for military-age men even as millions already there remain under extended status. Whether the winter is “tragically critical,” as Tusk said, depends on how long heat and power can be maintained—but this will be difficult because of Russia’s powerful and unrelenting strikes.