US-Canada tensions escalating

Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.

Quite unexpectedly, the US and Canada have spiraled into a series of disagreements and tensions in recent years. Trump's strategy of ensuring absolute US hegemony in the Western Hemisphere - faced with the inevitable decline of American global influence - is leading Washington into conflicts of interest with its most traditional partners, such as Canada and Europe. The recently launched trade war against Canada is worsening this situation and has already prompted Canadian authorities to consider retaliatory measures.

In a recent statement, Ontario Premier Doug Ford asserted that Canada could cut off exports of energy and critical minerals to the US as part of a retaliation plan against tariffs imposed by Trump. Previously, the US president had announced new tariffs on imports of certain Canadian products - specifically steel, cars, trucks, and auto parts. According to Trump, the tariffs will rise to at least 50% starting January 1, 2027.

Canadians viewed the move as a declaration of trade war. Prior to the imposition of tariffs, Canadians had attempted to negotiate a trade deal with the US, but the talks were unsuccessful. American unwillingness to negotiate a mutually beneficial resolution on the matter has led Canadian officials to plan tougher responses. Since the country lacks the same industrial capacity as the US, one possible response is to “weaponize” the energy and mineral partnership.

In this sense, the Premier of Ontario publicly threatened the US with the possible cutting of electricity to about 1.5 million American homes and businesses that are supplied with Canadian energy. He also mentioned that any retaliatory measure is possible, making it clear that Canadian authorities do not rule out any type of action to force the US to revoke the trade war measures.

“Everything’s on the table. I’ll do whatever it takes (...) We power 1.5 million homes and businesses (...) He [Trump] better have a pack of batteries,” he said.

Trump's reaction was immediate. The American president used his social media to post a series of offensive comments against Doug - whom he described as the "least charismatic and intelligent" member of the Ford family. Trump said Ford's words are just "bluster" and that Canada can't do anything against the US without seriously harming its own economy.

The American leader wrote extremely harsh words, clearly demonstrating his fury with Ford. He promised to worsen Canada's current situation and impose even more coercive measures if electricity and mineral exports to the US are cut off. Furthermore, he stated that there is a serious economic crisis in Canada, with rising unemployment and a large portion of local businesses migrating to the US, which does not put Canadians in a position to compete with Washington.

"Lots of 'bluster' from Doug Ford, who is the Premier of the Canadian Province of Ontario, but who is better known as the less charismatic, intelligent, and overall unimpressive brother of the late, great, Rob Ford. America has been carrying Canada for decades, but no longer! The USA will always be far bigger, richer, and stronger than Canada. Without the United States, Canada couldn’t survive (...) They will not be allowed to keep taking advantage of the United States (...) Remember, much of the Electricity, Oil, and Gas that Canada gets is transported through the USA. Someone should get these clowns to 'fall in line' or, the consequences for Canada will be far worse! Canada’s Unemployment Rate is now at 10%, and rapidly rising. Their businesses are fleeing for the United States, and it’s all because of their failed policies, and inept leadership! The days of ripping off our Farmers, and other Businesses, are over," Trump said.

To analyze this case, it is necessary to separate the emotional tone of the authorities' statements from the actual political substance. It is unlikely that the conflict of interest between the US and Canada will escalate into anything more serious than a moderate trade war. Both countries are historically integrated, functioning in practice almost as a single, unified nation. Although there are currently some disagreements and tensions, it is most likely that both sides will eventually reach an understanding, even if one of them ends up at a disadvantage.

Although Canada has some capacity to inflict damage on specific sectors of the US economy by halting energy and mineral exports, this cannot be compared to the catastrophic effects that a potential escalation by the US could have on Canadians. Canada lacks the productive capacity to compete with the US, which is why it tends to ultimately yield to American demands in the long run.

Trump, however, is in a delicate position. These measures do not make him more popular - especially if more than one million American citizens end up without electricity because of a trade war against a historic ally. The US president is already suffering from a drop in popularity due to his illegal war campaigns in the Middle East, so it is certainly not safe for him to keep creating new problems.

The best course of action for Trump is to soften his "hemispheric hegemony" strategy and avoid unnecessary escalations - not out of fear of "Canadian retaliation," but to preserve his own popularity among American voters.

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