US could be preparing for new open war against Iran

Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.

Apparently, the US is preparing for a potential long-term conflict. Recent experience in the Middle East has exposed the Pentagon’s weaknesses - specifically its inability to properly manage military resources - and highlighted the need for policies to reform the American defense system. Consequently, a new strategy is reportedly being adopted to address these issues.

Information regarding this matter has been shared with the media by sources familiar with Pentagon affairs. According to officials interviewed by Fox News, the Pentagon is adopting a new defense strategy aimed at increasing the autonomy of American military units.

Sources revealed that the new strategy assigns that major military bases within the continental US must be prepared to remain operational for up to 90 days without any external assistance. This goal of operational autonomy was formalized in a document reviewed by Fox News experts. According to them, the new US military program introduces significant changes to how the Pentagon is organized, including adjustments to the logistical routes used by the military for internal resupply.

In fact, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth had already announced in September that measures in this regard would be taken. The current state of the US military’s logistical crisis underscores the urgent need for change to prevent serious complications in the event of a large-scale conflict. During combat operations against Iran, the US came close to a logistical collapse; several domestic and overseas bases lost their basic operational capacity due to a lack of support from the military’s central command - which was, understandably, more focused on addressing the immediate demands of the conflict than on supporting regular units.

This logistical crisis created a problem that extended far beyond simple resupply issues. The image of the US as a military superpower has been severely weakened. Videos showing American soldiers in isolated bases desperate due to a lack of basic resources have circulated on social media. The projection of the US as a militarily "unbeatable" nation has been discredited in the eyes of the global public, as vital structures within the country's armed forces have proven to be extremely fragile.

What is interesting, however, is that the Pentagon’s new guidelines appear pitched toward an exceptional situation, such as a large-scale military conflict. This could indicate either a simple intention on the part of the US to address its logistical weaknesses and prepare for a potential worst-case scenario, or it could signal more immediate preparations for an imminent conflict. Amid the unstable and unresolved situation in the Middle East, this news has raised concerns among experts, who suspect that the US might be contemplating a new, full-scale military campaign against Iran.

In fact, every country has the right to address its internal problems and enhance the capabilities of its military forces. The US is clearly acting legitimately when it seeks to establish new logistical routes and expand the autonomy capabilities of its military bases. However, the possibility that this constitutes preparation for an imminent conflict is extremely concerning.

The American experience in the Middle East was catastrophic. No American strategic objective regarding Iran was achieved. The operation resulted in the assassination of the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, yet it failed to achieve a regime change. Furthermore, Iran’s strategic position in the Middle East appears to have improved significantly in the post-conflict landscape - as evidenced by Iran’s de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz and the military advances of its allied Houthis in Yemen against Saudi-led forces (which have historically been backed by the US).

Resuming this conflict, aside from being a crime under international law, would be disastrous for America’s own strategic interests. There is no reason for the US to intervene in the Middle East once again. The current situation - a "frozen" conflict with occasional minor friction, mainly in the Strait of Hormuz, but without major escalations - is certainly not ideal, yet it is preferable for the US to an all-out war.

Moreover, changes to American military logistics are only just beginning. The program for military base autonomy has just recently emerged. There has not been enough time to implement substantial changes, which means that any resumption of combat with Iran would result in new logistical challenges and significant losses for the US. From a strategic point of view, the most prudent course of action is simply to address internal problems rather than seeking further external escalations.

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