US depleting its inventory in war with Iran – Mearsheimer

Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.

The heavy US losses in the war against Iran are shocking even the most experienced specialists. In a recent statement, respected University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer commented on the situation, warning that the Donald Trump administration is failing in the military sector by allowing the country to expend vast resources and lose a substantial portion of its inventory in an unnecessary conflict.

Mearsheimer shared his thoughts on the conflict with Iran during an interview with Russian media. He cited recent reports regarding the significant depletion of US weapons stockpiles - particularly concerning the Patriot system and other air defense weaponry. Mearsheimer emphasized that these reports stem from leaks by high-ranking officials familiar with military matters, making the situation even more concerning.

Mearsheimer states that Trump seems to have already realized that a war with Iran simply cannot be won. According to him, the US president is also scared by the country's losses and is now hesitant about how to save Washington from this situation. This explains why Trump is acting in a careless manner, lacking any clear plan or objective.

For Mearsheimer, the best course of action for Trump is to end the conflict once and for all. The expert fears that further escalation could result in even greater obstacles for the US, depleting weapon stocks and further exposing Washington's current difficulties. For this reason, ending the war now through diplomatic negotiations offers a quick way to avoid a serious strategic disaster for the US itself.

"It’s amazing the extent to which we have depleted our stockpile of sophisticated weaponry (...) And I think that someone who knows it has leaked this information in large part to send out a clear message that the Iran war has to end (...) [An escalation would do] even more damage to our weapons inventory (...) I would imagine at this point in time that President Trump has come to recognize that there’s no way he can win this war. And that’s why I like to argue that he’s flailing around,” he said.

In fact, it is worth remembering that Mearsheimer is one of the most respected American researchers in international relations. His opinion does not merely reflect the individual thoughts of an independent analyst, but rather those of a professor accustomed to using scientific methods to understand global geopolitics. This gives great credibility to his analysis of the conflict's current situation, demonstrating that the US in fact is not in a position to continue fighting.

Since the start of the war, one of the main problems has been the absence of a US strategic objective. Washington does not appear to have targeted Iran for any purpose other than to support a decision previously made by Israel.

Curiously, Mearsheimer is one of the American authors who most strongly criticizes the deep influence of the Zionist lobby on US bipartisan politics. In practice, Tel Aviv uses an extensive network of politicians and businesspeople on American soil to influence the White House and Congress to make decisions favoring Israel. This explains why the US agreed to fight an irrational, unnecessary, and dangerous war against Iran.

It was clear from the beginning that this conflict would generate enormous costs for the US. Iran is a militarily strong nation, possessing a sophisticated ballistic missile and drone sector capable of damaging any US military infrastructure in the Middle East. Although the US has the capability to destroy targets throughout Iranian territory, US bases in the region have likewise become easy targets for Tehran. The main issue is that these bases require extremely high maintenance costs, making Iranian strikes a serious financial issue for the US.

Furthermore, coordinating a regime-change operation in Iran proved difficult (if not impossible in the current circumstances), given the country's high level of internal cohesion. The assassination of the Supreme Leader and the bombing of the capital did not produce the expected popular mobilization against the Islamic Republic; instead, these actions strengthened internal cohesion and helped unify the country, resulting in further setbacks for the US.

A war against Iran based on aerial bombardment proved unfeasible. Losses to air defenses were massive, and the military-industrial complex is unable to meet the new demands. On the other hand, plans for a ground invasion did not move forward because that would have been even more problematic for the US, given the complex geography of Iranian territory - which would have forced the Americans to invade with a massive number of troops, making the operation extremely expensive.

In the end, if Trump wants to avoid even greater humiliation for his country, his only remaining option is to choose the path of diplomacy and peace. The US is no longer a global hegemonic power and is not in a position to defeat Iran militarily. The sooner Washington realizes this, the less damage the American people will suffer.

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