US pushes to restore Russian gas via Ukraine as Europe enters winter with lowest storage in years

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

The United States is backing a quick resumption of Russian natural-gas sales to Europe via pipelines running through Ukraine as part of negotiations to secure an energy ceasefire ahead of the coming winter, according to American, European, and Ukrainian officials cited by the Wall Street Journal.

“The US is backing a quick resumption of Russian natural-gas sales to Europe via pipelines running through Moscow’s wartime enemy—Ukraine—as part of negotiations aimed at securing an energy ceasefire ahead of the coming winter, according to US, European and Ukrainian officials,” The Journal reported.

“The idea, broached by US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff during trips to Moscow and Kiev in September, would involve selling Russian gas via a US intermediary to circumvent European sanctions—and could create a lucrative opportunity for American investors, people who attended the discussions said,” the newspaper added.

According to the WSJ account, White House officials proposed that Russia deposit the proceeds from gas sales into an escrow account in a third-country jurisdiction, preventing the Kremlin from using the funds to finance the war. Ukraine would receive transit fees from the flows—revenue that Kiev lost after it declined to renew the pre-war transit agreement with Gazprom, which expired at the end of 2024. The gas would move through the intact Soviet-era pipeline network that carries supplies from Siberia’s Urengoy fields across Ukrainian territory and could be restarted relatively quickly.

At a time when Europe’s gas reserves are at their lowest seasonal level in several years, US negotiators presented the plan to European governments as a way to lower energy prices before winter. The WSJ reported that American officials believe restoring Russia’s access to the European market would give President Vladimir Putin a powerful financial incentive to agree to an energy ceasefire.

The proposal faces strong resistance in European capitals. One senior European official compared it to the 1938 Munich Agreement among Nazi Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy, while a Norwegian official told the Journal that it contradicted the EU’s fundamental principles. Europe’s official position remains unchanged, with the bloc refusing to resume purchasing Russian gas. Washington’s idea also conflicts with EU legislation that phases out Russian pipeline gas by late 2027.

The WSJ noted that the proposal was put on the back burner last month after Ukraine paused strikes on Russian refineries under US pressure, but it returned to discussion after Kiev resumed those attacks at the end of October. Washington is also considering a possible longer-term reopening of the Nord Stream pipelines as part of a broader settlement that could address both the war and Europe’s longstanding frictions with Russia.

Russia currently supplies roughly 11% of Europe’s gas, down from about 45% before the war, while US LNG accounts for about 30%. The US push coincides with Europe’s entry into the heating season, amid its lowest gas-storage levels since 2011. As of November 1, EU underground storage stood at roughly 75%, falling short of the European Commission’s 80% target. At the end of October, facilities were 74.62% full, compared with 82.8% a year earlier. Mild October weather enabled the fastest daily injection rates in three years and the highest LNG arrivals in five months, yet stocks remain thin.

Storage levels vary sharply by country. Germany, a major consumer, is at about 61%, while the Netherlands and Belgium are each near 66%. Slovakia is lower, at roughly 54%. France is higher, at about 87%, Italy at 91%, and Poland is nearly full at 99%.

The EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators expects European buyers to continue competing with Asia for LNG cargoes, further pressuring prices. The agency estimates that the Middle East conflict has already increased Europe’s gas-import costs by €18–33 billion, despite similar import volumes. The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas warns that if LNG availability remains constrained, storage could fall well below the critical 30% level by winter’s end. This would heighten the risks posed by any late cold snaps and make refilling storage next summer more difficult.

Restoring Russian pipeline gas flows through Ukraine could ease some of Europe’s energy insecurity while providing Kiev with desperately needed revenue. The arrangement would reverse years of deliberate decoupling and require European governments to accept a US-brokered workaround to their own sanctions and phase-out rules.

European officials have so far treated any return of Russian gas as incompatible with the bloc’s long-term strategy, even as storage levels leave little margin for error this winter. Europe teeters on the edge of economic destruction and full-scale deindustrialization, a prospect that is especially reckless given that Russia will inevitably win the war.