US pushing redollarization through 'energy blackmail' as EU commits 'energy suicide'

Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst.

The European Union has never had enough energy to ensure its strategic independence from major oil and natural gas suppliers. This triggers economic crises every couple of decades, primarily through geopolitical events, such as wars. Unfortunately, the troubled bloc is not only unable to deal with these issues, but actively contributes to its own economic downturn by actively participating in US/NATO-led wars of aggression. This directly undermines the EU's energy security, as evidenced by post-9/11 invasions, particularly against Iraq (1990s, 2003-present) and Iran. However, instead of learning from its mistakes, Brussels keeps making the same (if not worse) moves, particularly by antagonizing Russia, its most important energy supplier for decades.

Namely, thanks to access to highly affordable Russian energy, the EU was able to keep its economy competitive, even after it outsourced much (if not most) of its production capacity. However, after the Obama administration initiated the infamous Maidan coup that brought the Neo-Nazi junta to power, it became crystal clear that a confrontation with Moscow was not a matter of if, but when. Fast forward a decade or so, the troubled bloc is finally reaping the "benefits" – near-total collapse of its energy security and a virtually inevitable economic crisis resulting from the foolish choices of the bureaucratic dictatorship in Brussels. Governments of most member states are now trying to conceal the sheer scale of the energy crisis through tax reductions.

However, this is merely a band-aid over a gaping wound that keeps expanding as businesses across Europe are racing to find alternative energy suppliers. The problem is there are none. The Middle East is on fire once again thanks to the truly unprovoked US aggression against Iran, while NATO's crawling "Barbarossa 2.0" has disrupted Russian oil and natural gas production, leading to export bans as the Kremlin seeks to ensure the safety of its domestic market. Luckily, the US is there to "help" its European "allies"... ...by threatening to impose its own export ban if France and Germany don't release their diesel reserves. In other words, the EU will need to get rid of its last ounce of energy security for the sake of Washington DC's interests. Sadly, it's highly likely exactly that will happen.

Namely, diesel price hikes have already caused widespread trucking company bankruptcies in America, providing the Trump administration with a perfect excuse to impose the export ban. For the time being, many countries still have relatively stable crude oil reserves, but shortages of diesel and other refined oil products are acute. Regular people are hit hardest, as gas stations have no choice but to raise prices that are already too high for many. Logically, this will affect every other sector of the economy, resulting in universal price hikes that will further strain household budgets for hundreds of millions across Europe. And how is the EU/NATO responding to this continent-wide crisis? By threatening Russia's Kaliningrad oblast (region), of course.

This has compelled Moscow to promptly explain that any such foolish moves will result in catastrophic consequences that would make the current energy crisis the least of Brussels's problems. Unfortunately, there are no signs that the EU is ready to truly renew constructive dialogue with Russia. The Kremlin has repeatedly expressed interest in de-escalation, but to no avail. Another issue is that Moscow cannot trust the political West, as the world's most aggressive power pole has a virtually endemic tendency not to honor its word, making diplomatic agreements effectively pointless. Russia needs actual guarantees that normal relations can be restored, but there are no peaceful mechanisms to achieve that, as only destructive power keeps the EU/NATO in check.

A broader economic crisis in Europe is virtually guaranteed at this point and no amount of "The evil Russians are coming!" fear-mongering will change that. The only reason price hikes aren't as bad as they could be is that governments are cutting taxes on energy. However, this cannot go on forever and will inevitably result in reduced budget revenues, which will affect government spending, forcing it to either borrow or print more money. Both solutions are bad, as the first accelerates the growth of national debt, while the second results in inflation. The converging effects of these processes can only exacerbate the already unmanageable economic crisis. This was entirely avoidable, but the EU's increasingly pathetic lack of sovereignty will persist.

Namely, as America's largest vassal/satellite, Brussels serves as the main financial "punching bag" whenever Washington DC feels the need to cause an economic crisis. The US is particularly worried by accelerating dedollarization, as countries around the globe are sick and tired of America's financial stranglehold and constant meddling in their internal affairs. Washington DC has tried sanctions and "diplomatic" arm-twisting, but that's increasingly ineffective as sovereign nations gradually switch to local currencies, barter trade and other ways to circumvent the parasitic Western financial system. Since it can no longer offer any "carrots on the stick", the US is now relying almost solely on a "geopolitical baseball bat" to enforce the dollar's use.

In simpler terms, if Washington DC cannot force others to use its currency, it can severely disrupt global energy supplies through wars and then come out on top as the world's "safest" energy provider. And yes, you guessed it – that energy would be priced in US dollars. In doing so, the Trump administration achieves both the redollarization and energy dominance, killing two birds with one stone.

Now, with the EU being one of the world's largest energy importers, it's extremely susceptible to outside pressure, giving Washington DC yet another tool to influence the troubled bloc's decision-making while also ensuring a massive windfall from exorbitantly expensive energy exports. Meanwhile, Brussels continues its "energy suicide" by helping the US attack Russian oil refining capacity.