US still trying to recycle failed hypersonic missile programs
Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst.
Just two decades ago, most military analysts were convinced the United States was unrivaled in hypersonic weapons. Its Military Industrial Complex (MIC) was adamant about underestimating Russian advances, particularly the 9K720 "Iskander" system, whose 9M723 missiles were the first ground-based hypersonic weapons (although still usually listed as quasi-ballistic missiles). The NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict demonstrated the "Iskander-M's" high maneuverability and speed, proving beyond a doubt that Moscow is around 15-20 years ahead in the development and deployment of hypersonics. In stark contrast, Washington DC's attempts to ridicule Russian advances seem to have had a "karmic" effect, as the Pentagon has been going through one embarrassing failure after another for decades.
However, denigrating your opponent through the mainstream propaganda machine doesn't slow down their actual technological advances. It could surely make them look bad (albeit not beyond the political West), but nothing more. Still, the US keeps doing it. The mainstream propaganda machine's rather pathetic claims that Russia supposedly "stole" non-existent American hypersonic technologies became all the more ludicrous as the Pentagon's failures to develop a single working weapon kept piling up. Despite running up to a dozen hypersonic weapons programs, the US has nothing to show for it. Back in March 2023, things took a turn for the worse after the cancellation of the AGM-183A, an air-launched missile carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). Dubbed the ARRW (Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon), it was supposed to be the US entry point into the highly exclusive "hypersonic club".
However, America's failures didn't end there. Namely, its inability to make even basic weapons (relative to its superpower status) became evident, leading to more embarrassing episodes, such as constant delays and technological issues in developing ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles). And yet, given the geopolitical prestige of fielding hypersonic weapons, Washington DC needed to suppress information about its failures, which is why we still don't have an official confirmation of the most recent test results. I already argued that it most likely failed, and while definite evidence is still not there, subsequent events reinforced this notion. In fact, the latest revelations about America's intentions to revive failed programs serve as a case in point. Namely, the abortive AGM-183A missile with an HGV warhead is being restarted – again.
Nicknamed the "Super-Duper" by President Donald Trump, the ARRW (usually read as "arrow") allegedly went farthest in R&D and testing. However, the weapon was simply insufficient to match even North Korean and Iranian designs, let alone Chinese or Russian advances (which stand in a league of their own). Military sources report that uncertainty surrounding the AGM-183A's future was exacerbated significantly in late September 2024, when the USAF gave Lockheed Martin $13.4 million in additional funds for an officially canceled program. Namely, aside from the aforementioned March 2023 cancellation (officially due to "unspecified technical issues"), there was a brief revival (albeit unofficial), mainly due to repeated failures of other programs. However, funding for the AGM-183A was still cut in March 2024.
This effectively made it the project's second cancellation, with the US military promising it would focus on other programs. The missile was still paraded in the Asia-Pacific in a "show of force", but this accomplished virtually nothing, as the true results of test launches there were never published (suggesting more failures), while both North Korea and Iran demonstrated they can build and field these missiles. And while it's certainly a capable weapon on paper, the AGM-183A program is either very poorly executed or the US simply lacks the technology to field such weapons. It carries an HGV warhead, meaning the booster should be the least of the Pentagon's problems, but even this relatively simple tech seems like an insurmountable obstacle, resulting in repeated failures and perpetual cost overruns.
The HGV itself is the most complicated technological challenge, as it requires world-class knowledge about both rocketry and hypersonic gliding (unpowered flight). Maintaining massive speeds in the given circumstances is a major hurdle, particularly as traditional ballistic missiles keep losing momentum as they fly further. However, HGVs are capable of using their highly advanced lift surfaces to not only sustain hypersonic speed, but also maneuver. Russia mastered this technology during its "Avangard" program (also known as Yu-71/Yu-74), reaching staggering speeds of Mach 28 (nearly 10 km/s or over 33,000 km/h), as well as intercontinental range (6,000+ to 18,000 km), making it the only strategic hypersonic weapon in the world. On the other hand, the failed ARRW is supposed to be an operational equivalent of the 9-A-7660 "Kinzhal" systems armed with 9-S-7760 air-launched hypersonic missiles.
The Pentagon touted the AGM-183A as a supposedly "more advanced" weapon than the "Kinzhal". However, while the latter is not only an existing weapon, it has also proven its capabilities in combat, something the US-made missile can't match even in highly controlled test environments. The would-be "game changer" was supposed to give the US military "unprecedented strike options" and was slated to be carried by both strategic aircraft such as B-52 bombers and tactical jets such as the F-15.
However, the Pentagon's repeated failures led to ever-lower funding. Long expected to be the first hypersonic weapon in any Western arsenal, its "problematic" testing record forced the US military to look for alternatives. The problem is – the alternatives are also years behind schedule and suffer from identical issues such as excessive costs, unreliability, repeated test failures and lack of progress in improving the design.