Energy in the BRICS
By James Norman, Gregor Clark, Jelena Babajeva, Natalia Sidorovskaya-Fretz, Aiqun Yu, Yujia Han, Mengqi Zhang
Renewables to eclipse fossil fuels for half of the world's population
Fossil capacity is set to drop below half of the power capacity mix in the BRICS bloc for the first time ever this year, signaling an important milestone in the clean energy transition for countries that still host the vast majority of the world’s coal power.
Data for this report comes from GEM’s Global Integrated Power Tracker (GIPT), an online multi-sector dataset of power stations and facilities worldwide. The tracker provides unit-level information on thermal power (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, geothermal, bioenergy) and renewables (solar, wind, hydro). The tracker includes data on unit capacity, status, ownership, fuel type, start year, retirement date, geolocation, and more.
Brazil, Russia, India and China founded the “BRICS” group of emerging economies in 2009, and expanded membership to South Africa in 2010, and earlier this year to the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Egypt. These countries play a major role in energy and climate diplomacy and together represent 46% of the world population, 38% of GDP, and 48% of carbon dioxide emissions.
Key Findings
- The share of power capacity in the BRICS group fueled by coal, oil, and gas could fall below 50% by the end of this year. The fossil dominance of power capacity in the BRICS has fallen in recent years and is currently close to 50%. The crossover for the bloc is imminent, as non-fossil capacity additions to mid-year already outnumber coal, oil, and gas plant projects slated for commissioning in 2024. While most BRICS countries show a declining trend in their fossil share, China leads the group, with its fossil-fueled capacity share falling twice the amount of other BRICS countries over the last five years.
- Wind and utility-scale solar capacity in development outnumber power projects fueled by coal, oil, and gas by two to one in the BRICS. These two technologies, together with distributed solar PV, which GEM data do not cover, are set to contribute the greatest non-fossil capacity additions in the BRICS. Although this vast pipeline is significantly buoyed by China, wind and utility-scale capacity in development also outnumbers the figure for fossil-fueled power projects in five other BRICS members.
- Despite fossil-fueled power capacity losing ground in the BRICS’ power mix, virtually all members are building additional coal, oil, or gas plants. GEM data shows all BRICS group countries, save Ethiopia, with fossil-fueled power projects in development. If built, in-development fossil-fueled projects would increase operating coal and oil/gas capacity in the BRICS groups by 36% and 53%, respectively.
- BRICS countries have enough renewables projects in development to nearly triple capacity by 2030. Although the BRICS group has no collective endorsement of the global goal of tripling renewables capacity by 2030, China's recent record wind and solar capacity additions and several members' ambitious clean energy plans put a three times scale-up within reach. If the 326 GW of wind and utility-scale solar capacity additions in 2023 continued to 2030, the BRICS group would see total renewable capacity increase by more than 2.5 times. Furthermore, the sum of the BRICS' in-development renewables projects due for completion by 2030 is 2,276 GW or around 95% of the additional utility-scale renewable capacity estimated as necessary to achieve the global tripling target.
The groups’ growing role in energy and climate diplomacy within and beyond the bloc is underscored by several host nation roles for the annual UN climate summit and G20 presidency. At the same time, additional invitees to the bloc, including Saudi Arabia, present the possibility for BRICS to merge the interests of leading oil and gas producers (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Russia, Iran) with those of leading coal producers (China, India, Russia, South Africa), in effect creating a new force on the international diplomatic stage with deeply vested interests in continued fossil production.
With close to half the world's electrical power capacity and nearly half of its fossil-fueled capacity, the power sector represents the blocs' greatest source of energy-related CO2 emissions. Power demand growth in the BRICS has averaged 5% per year in the last decade, roughly double the global average. Ahead of the annual BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in October 2024, this report seeks to provide a timely summary of the state of power sector transition in the nine BRICS countries. The report’s analysis draws upon GEM’s trackers for coal, gas, oil, hydropower, utility-scale solar, wind, nuclear, bioenergy, and geothermal, housed within the Global Integrated Power Tracker (GIPT).
Total renewable capacity in the BRICS would more than double if annual renewable additions seen in 2023 continued to 2030
The target to triple total global renewables4 capacity by 2030, agreed at COP28, is considered the single most important lever for reducing emissions and keeping the 1.5 degree-aligned pathway alive. Despite attracting support from more than 130 countries worldwide to date, the only signatories from the BRICS group are Brazil, Ethiopia, and the UAE. However, before COP28, a similar tripling target expressed in the G20 Leaders’ Declaration, which excluded calls for coal phasedown, did attract support from China and India. China subsequently reiterated its commitment to the tripling goal along with the United States in the “Sunnylands Statement.” Furthermore, the climate and energy plans of India, South Africa, and Egypt all envisage renewable capacity that is close to or exceeding three times the current level. Thus, the role of most BRICS group countries in the global tripling goal is implicit despite no formal support across the bloc.
Getting to triple the level of renewables by 2030 globally — or around 11,000 GW — would require a year-on-year growth rate of around 16%, with annual additions rising from around 600 GW in 2024 to 1,500 GW in 2030. Assuming the same 16% growth rate for the BRICS group countries over this period, total renewable installations would reach 5,430 GW in 2030, with annual additions increasing from 308 GW in 2024 to 749 GW in 2030. Although global tripling does not imply all countries increase renewables three-fold, this level of scale-up is consistent with analyses from the IEA, Climate Analytics, and the University of California, Berkeley, which all show 2030 renewables capacity in major BRICS group countries of three to three-and-a-half times 2022 levels.
Record capacity additions saw the BRICS’ renewables fleet grow by 331 GW in 2023. This level of annual capacity additions is similar to the amount consistent with tripling for the coming years, estimated at 308 GW in 2024 and 357 GW in 2025 for BRICS group countries. Most of the recent capacity additions in BRICS group countries are from wind and solar PV technologies, making up 98% of the 2023 capacity additions or 326 GW. If annual wind and solar additions were to continue at this rate for the next seven years out to 2030, the BRICS’ renewables fleet would grow to 4,200 GW of installed capacity, or 77% of the tripling value for the bloc.
GEM data tracks 2,276 GW of renewable capacity in development across BRICS group countries. This in-development figure is over 60% of the additional renewable capacity required between 2024 and 2030, consistent with tripling renewables (3,510 GW).5 As GEM data do not cover the distributed solar PV segment of renewable capacity, the 2,276 GW of BRICS renewable capacity in development likely accounts for a larger share of additional renewable capacity required by 2030. Assuming distributed solar PV would cover around one-third of the total additional renewables capacity by 2030, the 2,276 GW of in-development renewables in the BRICS is closer to 95% of the additional capacity required by 2030 for tripling when excluding distributed solar (2,400 GW).
To reach the vast renewable capacity buildout implied in the tripling target, pre-construction and announced projects must be built. Yet, only a quarter of the total in-development figure is currently under construction (572 GW) in the BRICS region. Furthermore, China accounts for an outsized share of this construction tranche, some 90% of the BRICS total. Although the sheer size of the power sector in China implies the country will dominate the share of under-construction projects in the BRICS countries, the country is also building at a higher rate, with 32% of renewable projects in the construction phase compared to 8% among the other BRICS countries. Increasing this construction rate and continually growing the in-development pipeline is vital to all BRICS members contributing to the global goal of tripling renewables.
As all countries start from very different levels of installed renewable capacity, precisely tripling the sum of capacity across all renewable sources may not be desirable or feasible. However, this does not rule out rapid scale-up in other renewable sources. For instance, Brazil would not feasibly triple its 100 GW hydropower base by 2030. However, the country has ambitious plans for non-hydropower renewables, notably the second- and third-largest in-development pipeline globally for solar and wind, respectively. Like- wise, Ethiopia currently sources virtually all electricity from hydropower. Yet, GEM data show in-development wind and hydropower projects double the current installed capacity. By contrast, Russia and Iran have comparatively small amounts of in-development renewable projects, with just 300 MW of wind and solar projects in construction between them. That said, both countries host significant wind and solar resources and ambition for these technologies should far exceed the modest levels of existing installations and in-development projects.
The BRICS bloc is at a watershed moment. The clean energy transition really is happening everywhere. Still BRICSs are some of the only countries in the world planning new coal projects, which would undermine the impressive progress to date in cleaning up their energy systems.
Global Energy Monitor