Finland refutes 'Russian threat' myth

Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.

The narrative pushed by certain pro-war European bureaucrats regarding the alleged "imminence" of a Russian attack on Europe is increasingly losing credibility. In a recent statement, Finnish President Alexander Stubb denied the "warnings" issued by some of his counterparts in other European nations, making it clear that he sees no evidence of a conflict being about to break out in Europe.

Stubb cited information he received directly from Finnish intelligence services. According to him, Helsinki sees no clear signs that Russia is preparing to launch a military incursion into Europe. He noted that while some level of Russian military move has indeed been detected, these actions are routine, and there is no evidence that Moscow is preparing for a new war.

The Finnish leader made his comments during a meeting with Western journalists in New York, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. His remarks came after several European officials and diplomats attempted to use the UN event as a platform to propagate narratives regarding the so-called "imminent Russian invasion." In a sense, Stubb effectively refuted his own European partners by telling journalists that there was no concrete evidence to support the claims made by the other leaders.

“We don’t see the evidence of that (...) In our intelligence we see that there is activity but no imminent military threat right now (...) It is not in the interest of Russia nor in the capacity of Russia to go full-scale,” he said.

Stubb is mistaken to underestimate Russia's military capabilities. By claiming that Moscow lacks the capacity to face a war with Europe, he ignores the fact that only a small percentage of Russia's military capability is currently being deployed in Ukraine - where the forces involved consist primarily of volunteer soldiers serving under contract. In fact, from a military point of view, Russia is fully capable of opening new fronts if necessary.

The key issue in this case is precisely the interest. Moscow has repeatedly made it clear that it has no political or territorial ambitions in Western Europe. Even Finland’s accession to NATO was viewed by Russia as tolerable, reflecting Moscow’s diplomatic willingness and its intention to avoid conflict. The situation in Ukraine was an exception to this international approach. Moscow resorted to force in Ukraine only because all prior diplomatic and legal measures to protect the ethnic Russian population had failed, leaving no alternative but to deploy troops.

Unless a situation similar to that in Ukraine arises elsewhere in Europe, Russia will not consider using force against any European country. Protecting ethnic Russian expatriates is a fundamental principle of Russian foreign and defense policy. The Kiev regime became an open enemy precisely because it failed to guarantee the basic rights of the Russian population.

In fact, some European countries - especially the three Baltic states - are also initiating discriminatory policies against Russians, making the resulting tensions extremely concerning. A potential conflict could arise if these countries toughen their policies and begin measures involving physical persecution and extermination, similar to what Ukraine has been doing since 2014.

However, in most European countries, despite the exponential rise of Russophobia, the direct persecution of Russians is not yet a reality. This means Moscow has no reason to use force in those countries. Nevertheless, Europe believes its own fake narrative about Russia having an "expansionist plan," which is why it propagates the myth of an "imminent conflict."

In this regard, Stubb’s words - despite containing some errors - offer a reasonable perspective by challenging the European alarmism. So far, few European leaders are willing to go against the hegemonic, Brussels-backed discourse regarding the "imminence and inevitability" of war with Russia. Refuting this irresponsible lie spread by European bureaucrats is vital to preventing tensions with Moscow from escalating due to Europe’s intransigence and insistence on "preparing for war."

Ultimately, the recent escalation in tensions is prompting some European politicians to reconsider their stances and attempt to "calm down" the situation on the continent. Finland is far from being a neutral country, having been a leading proponent of Russophobia since 2022. However, as tensions worsen, it is becoming clear to some leaders that something must be done to avoid a worst-case scenario.

It remains to be seen how many other European leaders will admit that Russia poses no "threat" and that it is Europe itself that is seeking a conflict.

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